What’s up (or down) with OnDeck? [ONDK]

January 29, 2015
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stocks downOnDeck took the market by storm back on December 17th, achieving a high share price of nearly $29. If 2014 was the breakout year for alternative lending, then early 2015 is feeling a bit like a hangover.

OnDeck closed at $14.75 today, down almost 50% from its high and well below its IPO price of $20.

With stock analysts mostly bullish about the company’s prospects, retail investors may be wondering why the tide is moving in the other direction.

$ONDK weird stock sold im out..

— BullyBear13 (@BullyBear13) Jan. 22 at 09:59 AM

Q4 Earnings will be announced on February 23rd at 5pm EST. Anyone can listen in to it as the event will be webcast live on the company’s Investor Relations website or can be accessed toll free by dialing (877) 201-0168 for calls within the U.S, or by dialing (647) 788-4901 for international calls, and using conference ID 71535376.

OnDeck sailed into the market on Lending Club’s coattails just as investors were celebrating platform and marketplace lending. Lending Club is down 33% from their high.

The two have largely been lumped in together as disruptive financial technology companies, but as Stern Agee analyst Henry Coffee pointed out, OnDeck “should be considered a high-growth specialty finance lender.”

Perhaps worried that description might stick, OnDeck countered two weeks later with news that their Marketplace Platform would become generally available to institutional investors. While clearly trying to communicate what they want to be known for, investors seem skeptical.

So is a share of OnDeck on the cheap right now? It’s hard to say. Investors seem confused by it all. That might complicate plans for CAN Capital and Prosper who are rumored to be next in line for IPOs.

Given OnDeck’s long history of losses, many will be wondering if they can reproduce the magic of 2014’s Q3, the first time they ever recorded a profit. We’ll find out on February 23rd.
—-

Note: I do not own stock or have a market position in OnDeck or Lending Club

Despite FinTech Disruptions, Many Thing Stay The Same

January 5, 2015
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20152014 was an unbelievable year!

I kicked off last year by opening an account with Lending Club so that I could understand their product. Today I have tens of thousands of dollars invested on their platform and picking up new loans has become part of my daily routine. You could say I’m not surprised they went public a few weeks ago.

I also launched the industry’s first trade publication and ran it as both publisher and chief editor. We produced 6 issues and distributed more than 20,000 print copies combined. Unfortunately the publication will not be continuing further. It is wild to think that it both started and concluded in 2014 as the magazine had a cult-like following.

7 conferences in 4 cities. Las Vegas (twice), San Francisco, New Orleans, and here in New York. I spoke at two of them. Hoping for at least 1 Miami conference this year. Please??? It’s so cold here right now.

OnDeck Capital took a lot of flak in 2014 from both industry insiders and the media. They shrugged it all off and went public on December 17th. Considering they’ve operated on the fringe of the merchant cash advance industry for so long, it was one of those things you had to see to believe. I didn’t get inside the building but I saw the IPO was real from the outside.

OnDeck Capital

I started off 2014 not knowing what a Bitcoin was. Now I have a copy of the entire blockchain, operate a full node (don’t worry I have port 8333 open), have 10 dedicated mining devices running 24/7, have made purchases with bitcoin, conducted countless transfers, and just finished coding a working prototype application using Coinbase’s API. And when I realized that bitcointalk.org and my cryptography books weren’t enough to satisfy my appetite, I found myself talking about bitcoin on IRC; #bitcoin and #bitcoin-pricetalk on irc.freenode.net. I also know who Satoshi Nakamoto really is now too but he made me promise not to tell anyone.

I rebranded Merchant Processing Resource to deBanked, retiring a name I’ve used for 4 years.

I interviewed former Congressman Barney Frank, one of the two architects of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (it was only a few questions).

I got asked by a credible movie producer if I would help him on a storyline for a script about Wall Street and the alternative business lending industry. Don’t worry I turned it down!

I jumped on the payment disruption bandwagon and used Square to process credit card transactions all year. You should know that I previously did merchant account sales. I could’ve boarded my own account and set my own fees but I went with Square anyway.

I finally got set up to syndicate on merchant cash advances.

I ran my first 5k in Central Park.

I moved to a different part of Manhattan.

Of course a whole lot more happened. It was a roller coaster year which leads me to believe that 2015 will be impossible to predict. There’s a lot more room to grow in FinTech but it might be time for fresh ideas. Everyone and their mom built an online lending marketplace platform in 2014.

Similarly, it’s also a tough time to become a loan broker or MCA ISO especially if you’re undercapitalized. The easy profit ship has sailed. Press 1s and UCCs aren’t winning business models, at least not ones that will invite outside capital or ensure survival long term.

2014 changed finance but in many ways it stayed the same.

It still takes 2-4 days to confirm an ACH didn’t reject! This is annoying all around. If I add funds to Lending Club on a Monday, it’s not accessible until Friday evening. If you debit a merchant on Monday, you won’t really know if you have it until a few days later. Believe it or not I actually mailed out more checks in 2014 than in any other year of my life. The ACH system appears to be fine until you use something that is far more advanced, something I will probably write about over the next month. Instantaneous payments, low transaction fees, no bank involvement. Yeah, it’s time for ACH to go away…

And with banks, well… I have opened business bank accounts over the last few years with 3 different banks. The one I opened in 2014 required a two hour in-person interview, a process that involved filling out forms by hand and being threatened that the government would shut everything down in a heartbeat if they found out that I so much as breathed wrong on an ATM. It was a repeat of prior account opening experiences. Although I’ve never had an account closed for doing anything wrong (because I’m not actually doing anything wrong), it is easy to see how much regulatory pressure banks are under. Swiping your debit card upside down could cause the entire bank to get an Operation Choke Point subpoena. They want your business but they’re scared to death of anything you might do with a bank account.

All the major peer-to-peer platforms of 2014 became centralized. Lending Club and Prosper don’t even fall in the p2p category anymore. The market trend has been to create a platform designed for the little guys and then hand it over to a bank or institutional money to do all the funding. In some ways it’s easier to deal with a handful of big players instead of thousands or millions of retail investors. But with the regulatory environment uncertain on so many new investment products, it’s probably also safer to deal with institutional investors, lest the regulators claim they violated a consumer protection law they thought up this morning.

Banks continue to be the biggest obstacle to innovation because at the end of the day, all payments flow through them. How can one deBank and truly disrupt?

Hopefully we’ll find out in 2015. Happy belated New Year.

Getting in on the ONDK and LC IPO

December 4, 2014
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According to Investopedia, “Getting a piece of a hot IPO is very difficult, if not impossible.”

The Motley fool says:

If the bankers think a stock will soar, they earmark much of the shares for their favorite institutional clients (ones that bring in the most in commissions). In a sense, brokerages use lucrative IPOs to curry favor with big clients, to win and retain their business. When brokers aren’t so confident about the company’s prospects, they will try to sell the stock to less-favored institutional clients.

Admittedly these are generalities, not unyielding truths.

But when Lending Club mass e-mailed all their platform lenders on November 17th that they would be rewarded with a chance to get in on the IPO, people got excited. They wouldn’t just automatically get stock though, they’d be given the chance to buy it. An allocation was not guaranteed and a limit as to how much was not immediately disclosed, though it was recently revealed that platform lenders could buy up to a maximum of 350 shares.

Lending Club IPO

At $10-$12 a share, that’s an opportunity to spend a max of $3,500 to $4,200 on the IPO. Getting in won’t make you a millionaire but it’s a little way for Lending Club to say thank you to all those who invest on their platform.

I got the offer and turned it down. I’m very bullish on Lending Club stock but I feel like I’m already invested enough in them as a company through platform lending to need to get even more in. For those not sure how Lending Club really works, their system is not actually peer-to-peer. Investors buy Lending Club notes that are tied to the loans they issue. You are ultimately only investing in Lending Club with every note you buy. You have no relationship or claim to the borrower.

With that being the case, my tens of thousands invested in them is enough, especially from a retail investment standpoint. But I enjoyed the proposal nonetheless because it felt like a gift for getting in on the ground floor of something huge.

I also liked telling people over the last two weeks that I could get in on the Lending Club IPO.

“You hear about Lending Club going public?” I’d ask a friend. And then brag, “Yeah, well I have a chance to get in on the IPO if I want. I could talk to my guy to try to get you in but I don’t know if I can swing it. Maybe though.”

I was pretty damn important.

Until someone told me they could get in on the OnDeck IPO today. He apparently had an inside guy and that inside guy was E*Trade, as in he could apparently get in on OnDeck’s IPO just for having an E*Trade account.

ONDK IPO

One had to wonder why any schmo with a brokerage account was being asked to buy in. It didn’t sound good for OnDeck but I let my friend have his moment. His guy could try to get me in, etc.

The mass blanket invitation to get in might appear that brokers aren’t so confident about the company’s prospects. But actually back in January of this year E*Trade forged a “retail alliance” with middle-market investment bank Jefferies LLC. A Reuter’s story said that, “E*Trade is betting that it can score points with investors by guaranteeing access to IPOs that brokerage firms normally reserve for their best customers.”

OnDeck ProspectusOnDeck’s underwriters include Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank and Jefferies. This is in line with “giving its customers access to initial public offerings and follow-on offerings underwritten by middle-market investment bank Jefferies LLC” though I haven’t confirmed the alliance is the cause of this.

Just as with Lending Club’s allocation offer, no one is guaranteed anything with OnDeck through E*Trade. There’s a required approval process which may ultimately yield nothing.

And yet it still feels a little weird, maybe because I’ve been hearing about an OnDeck IPO for years now and I just can’t grasp it’s actually happening. It’s one thing for a big banker to talk about it and another for an old college buddy, my doorman, and Jim who’s the cashier at the local hardware store ask me if I know anything about this OnDeck loan stock advance thing they heard about.

All I know is that sentiment on them is mixed but that ultimately insiders believe it’s great for the industry.

As for both of these the IPOs? I don’t know. I’m not getting in on either of them but it has nothing to do with how I feel about the companies. I can’t wait to watch this all unfold though.

Check out the 224 page OnDeck Prospectus!

Lending Club’s Site Went Down

December 3, 2014
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A week away from IPO day, Lending Club is undergoing a supposed unannounced mid-day prolonged “upgrade”. There is no word about it on their twitter account. As many probably know, this down time coincides with one of the day’s four normal feeding times when fresh loans are loaded onto the platform in bulk.

lending club down

Are they just polishing up the old gears before IPO time or did something happen?

The 3rd revision of their S-1 registration was published two days ago.

Income Correlates With Loan Performance

November 24, 2014
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Income and Loan PerformanceNow that I’ve bought into nearly 1,800 personal loans on Lending Club, I think I’ve got a good enough sample to start running analyses.

The data isn’t perfect especially since none of the loans have reached maturity yet. Most are still between two and four and a half years away from completion. But strangely, 70 loans paid off early and a good number have already defaulted or are more than 16 or 30 days late and are on their way there.

With at least that to work with, I compared three groups:

  • Early payoffs
  • 16+ days late or defaulted
  • All others

I examined 4 initial factors and I will surely examine many more. While I saw some weak correlation regarding FICO score, it’s borrower income that really stood out.

Ignoring all other factors, the accounts that paid off early reported earning 29% more annual income than the accounts that are bad.

I had heard Peter Renton preach the high income borrower strategy and truthfully I ignored income as a factor in my decision making up until this point. On equities.com, Renton said, “I typically like more than $50,000 in annual income, although $75,000 is even better, and $100,000 is better still.”

Looking at my own sample, there is indeed correlation between the $75,000+ income earners with paying off Lending Club loans early.

Unlike some business loan products, Lending Club personal loans accrue interest rather than bake interest into a fixed total cost. That means a borrower that paid back a 5 year loan in just 3 months only paid 3 months worth of interest.

It was surprising to see that 70 borrowers repaid the loans in their entirety within a matter of months.

Regarding FICO, the score spread between bad loans and early payoffs was only 8 points, a lot smaller than I’d expect. But the portfolio is young and some loans have only just issued in the last few months. With another 2+ years left to go, the sample size of defaults will get bigger and I will be running the numbers on this again.

In in meantime, low income borrowers regardless of all other factors appear to be more risky investments. I guess you could say I’m not surprised, but it’s exciting to see data that supports a hypothesis.

Keeping Lending Club (and others) Honest

October 19, 2014
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Is Lending Club staying honest?Now that institutional money is flowing into the alternative lending industry, some retail investors are starting to express concern that the rules are changing. Lending Club for example is no longer considered a peer-to-peer lending platform, but rather an online credit marketplace.

Investors don’t exactly make loans to individuals in that marketplace, but that’s sort of how the concept began. Today, a bank issues the loan to the borrower, Lending Club buys the loan and creates a note tied to the performance of the loan, and then sells that note to investors.

Lending Club holds all the power and that worries retail investors who believe that the company is not always forthcoming about what they’re doing. It’s not easy to find dissenting voices when the market is growing rapidly especially since the media is cheering the revolution on.

But in the back corners of the Internet there are groups of investors growing suspicious, if not downright paranoid that all is not right in Lending Club land.

On Peter Renton’s Lend Academy forum for example, healthy discussions are being replaced by collaborative investigations into Lending Club’s practices. As a retail investor myself, I can’t help but be drawn to it. Below is a list of some of the issues:

The Borrower Member ID number is never reused
If a consumer borrows money from Lending Club in 2013 and again in 2014, it would probably be useful for investors to know about the previous Lending Club loan. Instead, borrowers are issued additional Member IDs with each successive loan, masking the history of past loans.

Borrowers may be taking two loans simultaneously
Acknowledging that Member IDs can never be reused, curious retail investors used other data points disclosed by Lending Club to link borrowers together. They believe they discovered a number of borrowers who got two Lending Club loans back-to-back, sometimes within days of each other.

The concern here is that the borrowers were taking on much more debt than the investor was led to believe. For instance, an investor might feel comfortable with the borrower taking a $10,000 loan, but has no idea that another $20,000 is being issued to them days later under another Member ID number.

Whether or not this is actually happening and the scale of how often it is happening is tough to say, but a little detective work by others indicates that it has possibly occurred.

What happens if Lending Club goes bankrupt?
While a poll with so few responses (52 total) on the Lend Academy forum may not be statistically relevant, 75% of the respondents claimed to be concerned in some capacity that Lending Club has no Bankruptcy Remote Vehicle for retail investors. 21% said they were extremely concerned. Absent a BRV, a Lending Club bankruptcy endangers all retail investors from getting paid regardless of whether or not the borrowers are actually paying their loans.

Anil Gupta, the founder of PeerCube wrote the following on the Lend Academy forum in response to the BRV issue:

You are not alone. I am also in the extremely concerned category when it comes to BRV for LC. This segment has been wild-wild west and reminds me of combination of dot-com bubble in 1999 and housing bubble of 2007. Overall, I am very concerned with platform risks.

Premature IPO attempts by p2p platforms is also concerning. I am taking that as indication of founders, VCs and early employees want to cash out and exit while the market is hot. They may be seeing the growth reaching a plateau and increased competition. I believe we will see a lot of shake out when interest rate start to rise. Potentially stepped up government regulations of p2p platforms once investors lose money.

Startup woes?
Retail investors, particularly those that have deployed a substantial amount of their capital in Lending Club notes gripe that sometimes the financial reports they get are missing data, experience glitches, or are just totally wrong. While usually resolved to everyone’s satisfaction, as a seven year old company, one might expect for Lending Club to be much more careful at this stage in the game. With an IPO in the works at this very moment, they should be way past problems such as data in the downloadable files not matching the website.

New fees
In August, Lending Club announced they would begin charging investors 18% of the delinquent amount recovered if the loan is at least 16 days late and no litigation is involved. When investors pushed back, it turned out that was always their written policy, they were just waiving it for everyone’s benefit until now.

While the move means a few more dollars out of every investors pocket, it was noticed that loans that have been restructured at the borrowers request are not marked as current for the duration of the payment plan even if they are in fact current on the payment plan itself. So when loans get restructured, Lending Club begins taking 18% of every payment as if it were a continuing collections problem.

From a firsthand perspective, I had several loans entering into payment plans almost immediately following the issuance of the loans. Basically the loan would be issued, the borrower would make their first payment, they’d plead hardship, go on a payment plan, and then Lending Club would begin deducting 18% of every payment going forward.

In these situations, our interests are not aligned. By entering a payment plan, not only is the amount the borrower is paying monthly reduced, but 18% of each of my payments now belongs to Lending Club instead of me. Basically, the appearance that Lending Club has a personal incentive to place borrowers on a modified plan at my expense and without my consent is a conflict worth monitoring.

Automated Investing under delivers?
For those with too much money or too little time to choose notes to buy themselves, Lending Club offers Automated Investing, a program that will automatically buy notes within parameters you set when they become available. The draw back is that the filters are limited and some investors are complaining that they’re ending up with notes they never would’ve bought manually.

WebBank woes
On October 6th, Lending Club announced that investors would have to sacrifice several days worth of accrued interest to WebBank, the bank that issues the loans for Lending Club.

Citing the move as necessary to keep Lending Club robust in a changing environment, the run up to the IPO has had some investors feel like they are suddenly being nickel and dimed.

Refinanced
Not that this is necessarily bad, but there’s evidence that shows Lending Club is encouraging its own borrowers to refinance their loans to a lower rate. If they do it, it results in the original note being paid off. The payoff returns the cash to the investor who then may have to wait two weeks or more to put that money back into a new note.


It must be said that any time I’ve published a gripe about something Lending Club is doing, my account representative there has called me to try and resolve it. That’s surprisingly good service!

But while I feel safe enough about my investments now to keep them there, there’s nothing wrong with reminding Lending Club and all of the other disruptive financial companies out there that investors are watching their every move.

As long as they have your money, it’s healthy to keep them honest.

OnDeck Already Filed Form S-1

September 27, 2014
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confidential s-1Back on August 14th, the Wall Street Journal reported that OnDeck was preparing to file for an initial public offering. Since then, industry insiders have been bustling with anticipation to see the S-1 filing, the document that would reveal once and for all their true financial standing.

Update 11/18/14: Click to see OnDeck’s Public S-1 Filing

In between then and now, Lending Club, their rival in the business loan market, filed their S-1 on August 27th. The peer-to-peer lending world went nuts and merchant cash advance veterans such as AmeriMerchant’s David Goldin were asked to comment on BloombergTV.

And then… things quieted down. OnDeck went radio silent on August 14th, despite the SEC requiring such only after the S-1 form had actually been filed. Speculation began to build as to whether or not the WSJ report in August was a false alarm or misinformation. And with no word from the industry’s beloved charismatic superstar Noah Breslow, something seemed to be amiss.

And then the Financial Times dropped the bombshell that the registration documents had already been filed… last month… confidentially.

Admittedly, I didn’t even know a company could file confidentially, a process done offline so that it is not recorded electronically. Thanks to the JOBS Act, companies with less than a billion dollars in revenue can submit draft versions of their registration documents to the SEC, allowing the SEC to review, revise, and agree on a final version that will ultimately have to be made public. The takeaway here is that an OnDeck IPO is in the process and the registration documents will eventually be released. The law states that OnDeck must make the documents public at least 21 days prior to pitching investors.

The New Yorker walked readers through confidential registrations back when Twitter was planning their IPO, noting that it was not uncommon to choose this method, “Twitter is much like its peers: most small companies that have gone public since the passage of the JOBS Act have filed their S-1s confidentially,” the New Yorker said.

So why be secretive? The New Yorker continues to explain:

From the perspective of companies, the new rule has a couple of virtues. First, it allows companies that are thinking about going public to test the waters—they can gauge investor reaction, get feedback from the S.E.C. on their filings, and so on—before deciding if they want to go ahead with an I.P.O. If a company goes through that process publicly, and then decides to abandon the offering, its reputation gets damaged, even though it often makes sense for a company not to go public. Do it privately, and no one gets hurt.
-Source: http://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/the-virtues-of-twitters-confidential-i-p-o-filing

OnDeck’s biggest critics are their competitors, naysayers convinced that they are recklessly undercutting pricing to acquire market share. Indeed FT reported that OnDeck posted annual losses of $16.8m and $24.4m in 2012 and 2013, and losses of $14.4m in the first half of 2014.

IPOWith $1.3 billion funded since 2006, an independent report cited in the registration by Oliver Wyman estimates the untapped market to be between $80 billion and $120 billion.

There’s plenty of runway left, but OnDeck has yet to turn a profit. In An Insider’s Perspective, I wrote, “What scares their competitors though, is that this strategy has been intentional. Very few if any players in the industry have had the luxury, guts, or the purse to lose money for seven years as part of a coup to conquer the market.”

If the IPO goes through, we can all place actual monetary bets on the company’s future. What a trip that will be. I expect the stadium of insiders to get loud once the public documents are released. Good luck OnDeck.

Lend360: The Industry Event of the Year

September 5, 2014
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It’s being called the full circle of lending. Non-bank business lenders, merchant cash advance companies, peer-to-peer lenders, consumer lenders, lead generators, and Wall Street tycoons are descending on New Orleans from October 14th to 17th to attend Lend360. I’ve partnered up with the event through the DailyFunder name.

From the governmental arena, Governor Bobby Jindal (left) and U.S. Senator David Vitter (right) are speaking at the conference.

Governor Bobby JindalSenator Vitter

On the business side, here are some speakers you might recognize that are definitely confirmed.

  • Brendan Carroll, Victory Park Capital
  • Brendan Ross, Direct Lending Investments
  • Scott Termini, Direct Media Power
  • Bob Coleman, Coleman Report
  • Heather Francis, Merchant Cash Group
  • Nick Owens, Magnolia Strategic Partners
  • Sean Murray, DailyFunder (myself)
  • Ken Rees, Elevate
  • Mark Curry, Sol Partners
  • Sasha Grutman, MiddleMarch advisors
  • Al Wild, Crest Financial
  • Mark Doman, eBureau
  • Tim Madsen, PartnerWeekly
  • Dickson Chu, Ingo
  • John Hecht, Jeffries

If you’re involved in MCA or business lending, you NEED to be there.

Here’s the most recent version of the agenda:




October 14-17, 2014

New Orleans, LA

In Partnership with

REGISTER TODAY