Sean Murray


Articles by Sean Murray

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Getting in on the ONDK and LC IPO

December 4, 2014
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According to Investopedia, “Getting a piece of a hot IPO is very difficult, if not impossible.”

The Motley fool says:

If the bankers think a stock will soar, they earmark much of the shares for their favorite institutional clients (ones that bring in the most in commissions). In a sense, brokerages use lucrative IPOs to curry favor with big clients, to win and retain their business. When brokers aren’t so confident about the company’s prospects, they will try to sell the stock to less-favored institutional clients.

Admittedly these are generalities, not unyielding truths.

But when Lending Club mass e-mailed all their platform lenders on November 17th that they would be rewarded with a chance to get in on the IPO, people got excited. They wouldn’t just automatically get stock though, they’d be given the chance to buy it. An allocation was not guaranteed and a limit as to how much was not immediately disclosed, though it was recently revealed that platform lenders could buy up to a maximum of 350 shares.

Lending Club IPO

At $10-$12 a share, that’s an opportunity to spend a max of $3,500 to $4,200 on the IPO. Getting in won’t make you a millionaire but it’s a little way for Lending Club to say thank you to all those who invest on their platform.

I got the offer and turned it down. I’m very bullish on Lending Club stock but I feel like I’m already invested enough in them as a company through platform lending to need to get even more in. For those not sure how Lending Club really works, their system is not actually peer-to-peer. Investors buy Lending Club notes that are tied to the loans they issue. You are ultimately only investing in Lending Club with every note you buy. You have no relationship or claim to the borrower.

With that being the case, my tens of thousands invested in them is enough, especially from a retail investment standpoint. But I enjoyed the proposal nonetheless because it felt like a gift for getting in on the ground floor of something huge.

I also liked telling people over the last two weeks that I could get in on the Lending Club IPO.

“You hear about Lending Club going public?” I’d ask a friend. And then brag, “Yeah, well I have a chance to get in on the IPO if I want. I could talk to my guy to try to get you in but I don’t know if I can swing it. Maybe though.”

I was pretty damn important.

Until someone told me they could get in on the OnDeck IPO today. He apparently had an inside guy and that inside guy was E*Trade, as in he could apparently get in on OnDeck’s IPO just for having an E*Trade account.

ONDK IPO

One had to wonder why any schmo with a brokerage account was being asked to buy in. It didn’t sound good for OnDeck but I let my friend have his moment. His guy could try to get me in, etc.

The mass blanket invitation to get in might appear that brokers aren’t so confident about the company’s prospects. But actually back in January of this year E*Trade forged a “retail alliance” with middle-market investment bank Jefferies LLC. A Reuter’s story said that, “E*Trade is betting that it can score points with investors by guaranteeing access to IPOs that brokerage firms normally reserve for their best customers.”

OnDeck ProspectusOnDeck’s underwriters include Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank and Jefferies. This is in line with “giving its customers access to initial public offerings and follow-on offerings underwritten by middle-market investment bank Jefferies LLC” though I haven’t confirmed the alliance is the cause of this.

Just as with Lending Club’s allocation offer, no one is guaranteed anything with OnDeck through E*Trade. There’s a required approval process which may ultimately yield nothing.

And yet it still feels a little weird, maybe because I’ve been hearing about an OnDeck IPO for years now and I just can’t grasp it’s actually happening. It’s one thing for a big banker to talk about it and another for an old college buddy, my doorman, and Jim who’s the cashier at the local hardware store ask me if I know anything about this OnDeck loan stock advance thing they heard about.

All I know is that sentiment on them is mixed but that ultimately insiders believe it’s great for the industry.

As for both of these the IPOs? I don’t know. I’m not getting in on either of them but it has nothing to do with how I feel about the companies. I can’t wait to watch this all unfold though.

Check out the 224 page OnDeck Prospectus!

Lending Club’s Site Went Down

December 3, 2014
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A week away from IPO day, Lending Club is undergoing a supposed unannounced mid-day prolonged “upgrade”. There is no word about it on their twitter account. As many probably know, this down time coincides with one of the day’s four normal feeding times when fresh loans are loaded onto the platform in bulk.

lending club down

Are they just polishing up the old gears before IPO time or did something happen?

The 3rd revision of their S-1 registration was published two days ago.

My Satoshi Monday

December 3, 2014
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Call me brave, batshit crazy, or deBanked in the modern era. Earlier this week I wound up at the Bitcoin Center in NYC, a place I didn’t really believe existed. They supposedly host events downtown by Wall Street every Monday and Thursday nights with free alcohol and food.

I don’t believe it, I thought. I called the place ahead of time, twice, half expecting the second attempt to reveal the number was actually out of service. Nevermind the fact that the first time I called, an enthusiastic gentleman was eager to have me stop by.

These bitcoin events start at 7pm. I got there 10 minutes early just to scope the situation out, that way I could escape before anyone knew I was there. Can’t take any chances with these bitcoin people.

But it looked safe. Well, safe enough. The Bitcoin Center is a giant open room on the first floor of 40 Broad Street. The lighting is dark and the floors are pure cement. It could easily double as a handball court or a trading floor, which it kind of is.

stallman free softwareAnd so I kicked off a Satoshi Monday with a crowd that looked like they were doing unix programming in the 1980s. I was glad I dressed casual. We may have been physically near Wall Street but mentally it was light years away. I half expected Richard Stallman, the legendary icon of the free software movement to pop in and start handing out bitcoins, digitally of course, through some kind of cool free software.

I’ve seen mainstream bitcoin enthusiasts at payments conferences around the country, you know, banker types, but the Bitcoin Center keeps it real. Within 15 minutes of my arrival, I had already had conversations that involved taking down the Federal Reserve, the Koch Brothers, and overthrowing the government. I learned that bankers were poisoning nature and that nature was gearing up for revenge. A war was brewing and you didn’t want to be on the wrong side. “You don’t want to f*ck with nature!” someone screamed.

I had no idea what any of it had to do with bitcoin but the crowd wasn’t all like that. Thank God.

Others gave me the inside scoop on Gems, a company that wants to be the “Bitcoin of social networks”. One fellow bought XGEMS early and if I was smart I should try to pick some up too. Maybe another time…

Cryptocurrencies and cryptoassets of all kinds were uttered. Of course each one seemed to be in presale, was only being offered for a low rate today, or was only open to a select few and for a limited amount of time. If you didn’t get in now, it was too late. The more seemingly elusive they were, the more people wanted to buy them, regardless of whatever they were.

Just as I was beginning to question My Journey to Bitcoin, shit got real. “You selling?” a guy asked me. I assumed he meant drugs. But when he saw how paralyzed I had become, he started to laugh. “I’m talking about bitcoin dude,” you have any to sell?

He wouldn’t be the first to ask me that night. In fact there’s a sizable group of folks that attend just to trade bitcoin. There was even an opening bell and an honorary guest bell-ringer guy to kick off trading.

bitcoin center nycThe Bitcoin Center isn’t an exchange though. Any deals made and arranged are between you and another party. Online exchange prices affect the price on the floor but deals made on the floor don’t affect online exchange prices. On Satoshi Mondays, bitcoin goes for cash money.

I thought it was dumb at first so I asked the next guy that was looking to trade, “Why would I buy bitcoin from random people like you in person when I could just do it online?” I should’ve seen it coming. “Must be easy for people like you who have a bank account,” he responded.

I let that one sink in. Just the day before I had blogged that 25 million Americans are unbanked, meaning they don’t have bank accounts or even access to banking products. This fellow was one of them. He lived off cash but wasn’t letting that stop him from shopping online. He gave you cash, you gave him bitcoins. He stayed unbanked but not cut off from the Internet connected world.

I wanted to ask him why he chose that route over a prepaid debit card, but cards are not a cure-all. Other attendees told me that they buy products overseas and that they were either being charged a huge percentage on top to cover the card processing fees or that merchants had stopped accepting cards altogether. Sure they could make an international wire transfer but even that was a headache for merchants looking to conduct an automated business online.

Satoshi MondayBitcoin was said to be simpler for all involved, something I believe because I purchased a new monitor using bitcoins on Overstock.com just last week. It was actually faster and easier than using a credit card. Seriously. I also saved Overstock on the processing fees. See what a good citizen a bitcoin buyer can be?

An in-person bitcoin exchange also prevents the parties from having to pay an online exchange fee, not to mention that you can gain an edge through negotiating. The liquidity of cash on the spot can create some serious arbitrage opportunities.

People threw down thousands of dollars to buy bitcoins which were then transferred via a mobile app. I probably had enough to do some trading but I didn’t need the cash.

When the free pizza arrived, the crowd turned into a mob. The underbanked it seemed were also underfed and a life of living bitcoin to bitcoin meant this might be the only meal they had for some time. I pushed their weaker counterparts, the unbanked, out of the way to get a hot slice and they pushed me right back.

“Bank account lover!” they shouted. It was a harsh indictment, but they knew. As deBanked as I was, they knew that ultimately I was banked.

Damn.

Some people left right after they ate. Those that remained began to tell me about their digital mining operations, a necessary component of the Blockchain technology that cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are built off of. Bitcoins don’t just magically appear. Computers on the Internet perform wildly difficult mathematical calculations in order to facilitate the creation and transfer of bitcoins. This design is partially why nobody can beat the Bitcoin system.

One guy told me that he had his basement completely redone so that he could turn it into a mining center. Most mining is done with specialized computer hardware that can perform nothing other than mining. You can actually buy such machines at the Bitcoin Center. If your mining is productive for the system, the system will reward you with bitcoins. The processing power required to solve the complex mathematics makes the odds of being rewarded very low. As time goes on, the system’s equations get more and more difficult to crack.

bitcoin center nycSome miners are backed by billion dollar investment funds and have a serious advantage in the mathematics arms race. But for those that just casually dabbled in mining, they seemed to be getting a little something from doing it, even if it was small.

Admittedly one guy talked me into buying mining equipment, something miniscule and inexpensive, a novelty almost. It of course packs so little power that its contribution to the Bitcoin system will be insignificant and will likely yield nothing. I didn’t buy it from him though, I bought it on Amazon. Not taking any chances with the bitcoin weirdos.

I used a prepaid debit card to buy an Amazon gift card which I then used to buy a bitcoin mining machine, or something. I swear I’m not crazy. The moment I clicked buy though, something happened to me. My beard got a little more scraggly, the designer label on my pants faded away, all my past presidential votes magically got switched to Ron Paul, and I finally understood that nature was coming to kill us all.

Well, that’s almost what happened.

The Bitcoin Center might bring out the the industry’s worst stereotypes but between the lines, there’s something there. The unbanked, the merchants/consumers dealing with the costly nightmares of credit card processing, and the freeing feeling of operating outside the traditional banking system. I get it.

And they got me because I was one of the last people to leave that night. Before I knew it, Satoshi Monday almost became Satoshi Tuesday. “Party’s over buddy,” said one of the important Bitcoin Center people. I was ready to go. I really was. I had absorbed a lot. But I had just one more question for him.

“You selling?”
—–

Want to just try it out? Buy just $1 worth of bitcoin on Coinbase. You have nothing to lose by learning.

Merchant Cash Advance Now In-Depth

December 1, 2014
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For quite possibly the first time ever, Google has blessed merchant cash advance with its own array of In-depth articles. What are In-depth articles? Why, they’re featured stories at the bottom of the normal search results. The In-depth feature launched in 2013 and has only worked for certain keywords.

Today it appeared for the very first time for the keyword merchant cash advance

in-depth merchant cash advance articles

Since Google experiments constantly and shows different results to everyone, it’s possible that you’ve been seeing this for some time already.

I had this to say about the feature 16 months ago:

If you’re wondering how websites can prepare themselves to benefit from such rich snippets, I published Schema.org Markup and Rich Snippets for the Little Guy back in August 2013.

rich snippets

Businessweek, NY Times, and Forbes… I’m not surprised that they’re the chosen publications. Truth be told, there may not have been enough written about merchant cash advance to implement this feature until now. Consider this a milestone.

Merchant Processing Resource is Now deBanked

December 1, 2014
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deBankedBack in July 2010, I launched www.merchantprocessingresource.com as an independent resource for merchant processing and merchant cash advance. At that time I was celebrating my 4th anniversary of working in the merchant cash advance business and realized there was little to no information about the industry online.

For the last 4 and a half years, this website under that name has been visited by hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom were new to the business or interested in getting into it. I’ve received thousands of emails and responded to an insane amount of questions.

In 2010, 95% of all merchant cash advances relied on merchant processing. For those that remember, funding was in many ways secondary to acquiring merchant accounts. But the industry has evolved and other related financial alternatives have sprouted up around it.

Over time I found myself exploring new avenues and relaying what I’ve learned or what I knew with the rest of the world.

Merchant Cash Advances may have started off as a product for those underserved by banks but it has morphed into an option for bankable businesses that would rather skip the bank. In a sense, today’s capital-seeking merchants are deBanking.

Consumers too are turning to peer-to-peer platforms and crowdfunding campaigns instead of credit cards and bank loans.

And then there’s myself. I started buying into Lending Club loans in January of 2014, almost a year ago. The returns crush what I could earn with a savings account or CDs. The bank is the least attractive option if you want to earn a return on your money.

But it goes beyond lending and earning interest. All the big conferences this year were filled with bitcoin enthusiasts, a payment technology and currency that is not only independent of government, but of banks. Of course I gave it a look and loved it. I shared my feedback in a post titled, My Journey to Bitcoin.

Merchant Processing and Merchant Cash Advance may have kicked off this blog, but four and a half years later, it’s time to acknowledge the other forces, many of which I have already been covering for quite some time.

With 2015 right around the corner, the world is deBanking in more ways than one.

I’m deBanked.

Are you?

My Journey to Bitcoin

November 30, 2014
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bitcoinCount me amongst the libertarians, anarchists, and digital lunatics. I made an online purchase using bitcoin… and it was insanely easy.

The first person I shared my experience with was a friend who works in automotive manufacturing, someone who operates outside the world of alternative finance. He thought I was crazy or rather he was more confused than anything. “Wait, bitcoin?” he asked. “I thought that was a scam that went out of business two years ago.”

Stunned by his remarks and disappointed with his lack of excitement for me, I told a few more friends about what I had accomplished. They had all heard the term, but none of them knew what it was. Oddly, most seemed to believe that bitcoin had already been revealed as a con and was something from years past, a scheme that came, got hacked and failed.

Not so long ago I was in their shoes. I received my first education in bitcoin this past fall, September 22, 2014 to be exact at the 3rd Annual Tomorrow’s Transactions NYC Unconference hosted in Google’s New York headquarters.

(For the record, I’m going to talk about bitcoin the currency, not the blockchain)

It’s a con?

Famous money laundering expert and author Jeffrey Robinson gave a blistering assessment of bitcoin the currency, which he described as a hoax perpetuated by “libertarian anarchists.” His contentious indictment was half warning, half sales pitch for his latest book, BitCon, which I bought the day it was released.

Robinson argued that bitcoin adoption, while minuscule, was still greatly exaggerated.

He explores several challenges in his book, one of which can be summed up as:

Why would someone exchange dollars into bitcoin only to have to convert their bitcoin back into dollars?

It’s a great question, but it’s something I’ve done every time I’ve traveled abroad. Dollars to euros and then euros back to dollars. Dollars to pounds, dollars to canadian dollars, etc. But why do an exchange at all when the counterparty prices their goods or services in dollars?

Benefits

Assuming bitcoin’s value against the dollar wasn’t volatile, I can think of three immediate reasons:

1. I don’t have to enter in my credit card number on a website and risk it being hacked or stolen.
2. I can make a payment online if I don’t have a credit card or debit card.
3. I can spare the merchant the payment processing fees.

Let’s forget about point one for now because it’s easy to overlook the pervasiveness of point two. According to the FDIC’s latest National Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked, 25 million people in the country do not have access to a bank or banking products at all. Poverty is a main driver of that but curiously 34.2% of respondents in that group cited that they don’t like dealing with banks or don’t trust them as a reason. 30.8% said that account fees were too high or too unpredictable.

And that’s just the unbanked. 1 out every 5 households in the country is underbanked. They have a bank account but have also obtained financial services and products from non-bank alternative financial services providers in the prior 12 months.

To those of us that rely on banks for everything this may seem extreme, perhaps even downright unbelievable. Coincidentally, Robinson wasn’t the only notable figure at the New York Unconference. He was joined by Lisa Servon who later spoke about her hands-on experience with the unbanked and underbanked. A professor of urban policy at the New School in New York, Servon got a job as a check casher/payday lender in a storefront on a busy corner in downtown Berkeley, California to learn about these households on the front lines.

Consumers can be intimidated by banks she said at the Unconference, especially minorities. Even people who can afford to use banks opt not to. A sample of her experience was published a month ago in the New York Times.

Moving on to point three, accepting bitcoin can either be free or vastly less expensive than accepting a credit card payment. Payment processing fees are significant in commerce. I know this because I accept credit card payments through both Square and PayPal in another business I run and it costs me nearly 3% per transaction. I’ve also sold merchant processing for years and have priced hundreds if not thousands of accounts.

You know that thing American Express invented called Small Business Saturday where consumers are encouraged to spend money at small businesses? Paying with your AMEX card is encouraged of course and AMEX charges about 3.5% to the merchants on every sale.

By going dollars->bitcoin->dollars, you can do even more to help small business by saving them the fee. Granted, most consumers probably wouldn’t jump through any hoops to save a business money especially if it meant trying to figure out how to convert your dollars into something they perceive as “a scam that went out of business two years ago.”

I’ve read all the warnings about bitcoin already and have even been lectured by Robinson personally:

and yet what intrigued me most about bitcoin aside from the transaction costs, was the fact that it was not run by a government.

What if?

Five years ago I had a sinking feeling. The safety and security of the U.S. economy was put to the test. Stock prices fell, lending dried up and millions of Americans actually began to ask themselves, what if? As in what if the dollar collapses? What if your bank account suddenly became worthless? What if you had to suffer for the mistakes others in your country made?

In 2009, a colleague and I pledged to stick together should an eventual economic apocalypse happen. Our plan was simple:

1. Exchange all our money for a gigantic gold brick and two shotguns
2. Sit on gold brick and guard it with those shotguns

Survival would remain possible by chiseling off pieces of the gold brick and exchanging them for food and water. We’d each take turns sleeping and hopefully survive until things returned to normal, if ever.

A fantasy to be sure, and it was great for laughs to break up the day, but what if?

My apocalyptic paranoia is one of many stereotypes of the bitcoin faithful, but I have no interest in exchanging 100% of my dollars to bitcoins. And no, I don’t think the dollar is going to collapse tomorrow. I am intrigued however by a currency that eludes governmental control. We can all keep a gold brick in our back pockets, even if it’s small, and even if it’s digital. If for no other reason, it’s a small hedge for peace of mind.

It’s quite ironic that while critics talk up the dollar’s superiority and the strength of the U.S. government, only 14% of Americans approve of how Congress is handling its job. Not to mention that the nation is at this very moment $18 trillion in debt, a number very unlikely to be made whole. Remove the term bitcoin from the conversation and it’s quite likely the average person would at least be amenable to the possibility of a non-governmental currency.

Perhaps as Americans we are somewhat blind to risks, that we feel nothing catastrophic could possibly to happen to us. To many it is literally unthinkable. A completely independent currency has its merits both now and in far bleaker times.

Of course should the apocalypse occur and all you have is bitcoin, rest assured you will be able to buy a shotgun since you can pay for them with bitcoin:

The get rich quick crowd

Here lies another criticism of bitcoin, that everyone is holding it and no one is spending it. Far from idle, there are currently more than 80,000 bitcoin transactions per day. Without prohibitive transaction fees though, volume is a poor measure of adoption since I could easily send bitcoins back and forth between accounts I own and classify them as transactions.

There are indeed those holding and not spending. Rampant speculation is both a cause of volatility and an argument for its long term unsustainability. Speculators are hoping the digital currency will appreciate and make them filthy rich. If that day never comes, a big sell off will cause its value to drop.

bitcoin last 3 months

Price chart over the last 3 months

And therein lies the argument… when or if the speculators leave, will that spell the end of bitcoin?

If bitcoin had no practical uses outside of being another digital currency like World of Warcraft gold, then bitcoin would likely be a con, a predictable one that probably would’ve combusted already.

There may actually be a massive market correction in the future. At the current moment, Coinbase reports that 1 btc = $376.23. On November 14th, I paid $397 for 1 btc. It lost about 5% of its value in two weeks, a tough percentage to stomach for the faint of heart, and most certainly the average consumer. It’s also equal to the plunge the S&P 500 took between October 8th and October 16th so such short term volatility exists in other mainstream assets.

I’m not necessarily speculating though. I spent almost half my bitcoins shopping on Overstock on Black Friday, an experience I will detail in another post. A 5% swing might be acceptable for an investment but it’s quite ugly for a currency and this fuels the misinformation that bitcoin is a scam, con, or has already gone out of business two years ago.

1 btc could drop to $100 or $10 after a furious market shakeout and it wouldn’t change how I felt about it. It could also rise back up to $1,000 or higher. That volatility is enticing, almost sexy, but it’s the lack of transaction fees and governance by mathematics rather than actual governments that have me hooked

White knight

bitcoinStill, bitcoin is waiting for a few white knights, merchants willing to price their goods and services in bitcoin. For years, I have priced advertisements on this website in dollars, but to show my support, I will soon be pricing them in bitcoin going forward. Dollars will still be accepted of course, but those Paypal fees hurt. Paypal costs me 3% in a split second. Is a 5% loss in bitcoin value over two weeks really that wild by comparison?

I think not.

Bitcoin is more than a currency. It’s not the euro, the yen, or the peso. It’s a detachment from governments and banking. It’s self-control. Without the private key, your bitcoins can’t be seized.

We live in a world today where everybody has their hand in your money. Just look at what happens when you pay for a cup of coffee using your credit card. The following parties all get paid a percentage:

  • The small business owner
  • The small business owner’s merchant account representative
  • The merchant account representative’s company (the ISO)
  • The payment processor (the processor settling the transaction)
  • The acquiring bank (the payment processor’s bank that is authorized to use the payment networks)
  • The payment networks (Visa, mastercard, etc.)
  • The customer’s card issuing bank (The bank that issued the card to the customer gets a percentage of every sale made with that card)
  • The state (where there is sales tax)

If you thought bitcoin was insane, what do you call a system where eight parties need to get paid to facilitate the sale of a cup of coffee? And my example was simple. There are typically more parties involved that that.

I don’t want to give the impression that you can evade taxes with bitcoin. I have every intention to stay on the up and up with governments. But remove the tax man and the merchant from the equation, and one has to wonder what the heck is going on with the other six parties, all of whom will ultimately decide if your transaction is acceptable to them. They decide, not you. They can freeze your funds if they don’t like the transaction and they do. It happens to merchants all the time.

Your money is not really yours. You have rights to it, but only to an extent. It can be garnished, frozen or confiscated. That’s the price of liquidity and relative stability. If you can afford to color outside the lines, where you can remove the six bankers and their control, why not experiment? There’s something pure about it, liberating. And when you add in the fact that it’s governed by math, it’s more than that, it’s beautiful.

deBank

debankIf you are under the impression that bitcoin is intimidating, a scam or out of business, well then I encourage you to step out of governments for a minute, to deBank, and take a walk on the digital side. I’m not going to convert all my dollars to bitcoin and you shouldn’t either. Try it out with some extra cash.

Sure, you’ll be in company with libertarians, anarchists, and lunatics. And yes, there’s the paranoid, the speculators, and those transacting in illicit goods and services. The beginning of the Internet and computers was much the same way with the unix and linux faithful.

Perhaps bitcoin needs a Steve Jobs, a Bill Gates, to package up something simple and suitable for the average household. Every American would appreciate squirreling away a little something that is out of reach of government and banks.

The vast majority of Americans already don’t trust congress, and 92 million Americans are already underbanked or unbanked. In 2014 buying a cup of coffee involves paying eight people and the government has spent $18 trillion that it doesn’t have. You have to start to wonder who the real lunatics are. Consumers are waiting for something… even if it’s just a little peace of mind, a hedge, a gold brick in their back pocket, the feeling of independence, freedom, control. Something…

I deBanked and loved it. Now it’s your turn.

Income Correlates With Loan Performance

November 24, 2014
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Income and Loan PerformanceNow that I’ve bought into nearly 1,800 personal loans on Lending Club, I think I’ve got a good enough sample to start running analyses.

The data isn’t perfect especially since none of the loans have reached maturity yet. Most are still between two and four and a half years away from completion. But strangely, 70 loans paid off early and a good number have already defaulted or are more than 16 or 30 days late and are on their way there.

With at least that to work with, I compared three groups:

  • Early payoffs
  • 16+ days late or defaulted
  • All others

I examined 4 initial factors and I will surely examine many more. While I saw some weak correlation regarding FICO score, it’s borrower income that really stood out.

Ignoring all other factors, the accounts that paid off early reported earning 29% more annual income than the accounts that are bad.

I had heard Peter Renton preach the high income borrower strategy and truthfully I ignored income as a factor in my decision making up until this point. On equities.com, Renton said, “I typically like more than $50,000 in annual income, although $75,000 is even better, and $100,000 is better still.”

Looking at my own sample, there is indeed correlation between the $75,000+ income earners with paying off Lending Club loans early.

Unlike some business loan products, Lending Club personal loans accrue interest rather than bake interest into a fixed total cost. That means a borrower that paid back a 5 year loan in just 3 months only paid 3 months worth of interest.

It was surprising to see that 70 borrowers repaid the loans in their entirety within a matter of months.

Regarding FICO, the score spread between bad loans and early payoffs was only 8 points, a lot smaller than I’d expect. But the portfolio is young and some loans have only just issued in the last few months. With another 2+ years left to go, the sample size of defaults will get bigger and I will be running the numbers on this again.

In in meantime, low income borrowers regardless of all other factors appear to be more risky investments. I guess you could say I’m not surprised, but it’s exciting to see data that supports a hypothesis.

The Funding Calls That Won’t Stop

November 23, 2014
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“Your business has been approved for a loan…”

Last week, Chicago Public Radio (WBEZ 95.1 FM) investigated a trend in the small business community, the use of merchant cash advance financing. The station called me in advance to answer some questions about merchant cash advances and I gave my best explanation of the industry and its products.

Of the discussion that lasted more than 30 minutes, only about five of my sentences made it on the air. While I clarify some of my positions below, it was sobering to learn the context of how they were used, as a defense to real life merchant complaints.

The satisfaction rate with merchant cash advances are pretty high and I say that mainly because it’s so rare to hear complaints from anyone other than journalists that can’t believe anyone would accept rates above 6% APR. And while there are indeed bad actors in the industry (as there are in any industry), the gripe one merchant had about phone solicitations that just won’t stop is a recurring theme.

It’s happening to me too.

As an account representative in 2010 calling real time leads sold to five parties at once, I did what anyone would do, I pretended to be a small business myself and inquired through the website that we bought leads from and entered my cell phone as the point of contact

Ring. Ring. Ring…

Within a half hour, representatives from four companies called me, and I learned exactly who my competition was, how they explained the product, and what they would say to win me over. Two of the four were really good and one even referenced my name personally, saying something to the effect of, “If you get a call from Sean Murray, his rates are worse than mine.” Obviously he had already done what I was doing now, which was pretend to be a small business so he could prove to the prospect he was well informed about the alternatives. He had heard my pitch already and was now throwing me under the bus by planting the seed that I was going to offer something more expensive even if it wasn’t the truth.

In the end none of them won because it was all a farce. One never called me again after the first call. Another kept at it for a week and the remaining two followed up for a month.

And then it got quiet…

I had been marked as a dead lead and forgotten about until three months later when one company sent a follow up email. “Smart,” I thought. But then a call came six months later, and then more emails, some from companies I didn’t originally engage with.

And they continued at regular intervals, every couple of months an email or call. Was it interesting? Yes. Annoying? No.

Until this year.

call centerThe volume of emails have slowed but I’ve somehow ended up on robo calling lists. “Press 1 to talk to a funding specialist or press 9 to be added to the Do Not Call list”

The press 9 option doesn’t work for me. Sure, I might be removed from that marketer’s list, but it in no way removes you from anyone else’s list. I knew that already of course because I’ve been on the other end before.

The first time I got one of these calls, I was excited to tell the sales representative who I really was, level with him, and explain that it was a really good idea to take me off the list. But much like other business loan robo call complaints, the representative wouldn’t tell me anything about himself or his company.

I got yelled at.

Every time I tried to ask a question, he’d get louder, insisting I tell him my monthly gross sales volume for the “cash advance I wanted.”

A rogue actor maybe, but I’ve since gotten additional business loan robo calls and have made no progress in getting myself removed. I just hang up now.

Call it sweet irony perhaps. Or maybe a wake up call (pun intended). I applied on a website once four years ago and the rest is history.

My experience with repeat solicitations is marginal compared to somebody that has actually used a merchant cash advance. With the filing of a public UCC-1, anyone in the industry can easily access that data and convert it into a marketing list. And they do.

Brokers that scorn UCC marketing acknowledge that these businesses could be getting called 5-10 times a day. My own clients had reported repetitive calls back when I was an account representative. And while UCC marketing is very cost effective, in today’s market where more than a thousand companies are offering similar financial products, it’s probably safe to say it’s overly saturated.

And if 5-10 calls per day were even remotely accurate, I’d surmise that level of volume is marring the industry’s reputation as a whole.

I could argue though that when customers have a great many options to choose from, they win. With more than a thousand companies offering merchant cash advances and business loans, it’s truly a buyer’s market. Play all the companies against each other and you should end up with the best possible terms. It’s a great time to seek capital.

Except we’ve got to do something about those phone calls, or at least the robo calls.

Every angry robo dial recipient becomes one less person likely to speak positively about the the nonbank financing industry. Aged leads, UCCs and phone calls might be inexpensive, but the cost to undo negative preconceived notions is immeasurable.

Do you want to be known as the company that helped small businesses or the annoying people that won’t stop calling? If merchants are taking to the air waves to complain, it will only be a matter of time before the FTC and FCC become interested.


Regarding my comments on the radio about APRs and daily amortization, they were pulled from a conversation that compared daily payment loans to purchases of future sales. I DO believe bad actors exist and every business owner should have an accountant, lawyer, or savvy third party review any contracts they enter into, financial or otherwise.