Loans
Upstart: Humans are not very good at underwriting loans so AI won’t be either
March 23, 2026
“…unfortunately, humans have never really been very good at precisely underwriting loans and figuring out the cash flows they’re going to produce for the next 5 years,” said Upstart CEO Paul Gu during the company’s Q4 earnings call in response to an analyst’s question. “That’s something that has always been solved as a big math problem.”
Upstart’s innovative consumer credit models preceded the dawn of modern-day LLMs. It has been one of their defining features. Underwriting on their part is a combination of the best data access and math. Because of that, they do not view AI as a threat because AI is only great at replacing what humans are good at and underwriting is not one of those things.
“I mean the simple answer is just that a lot of the advances in AI are really good for work that humans are naturally good at,” said Gu.
Gu used an example of a HELOC in which human processors have to go through process of securing and perfecting a lien, checking property records, etc. “…like a lot of that stuff is a mess in a human way and traditionally comes with very high operations cost because you have a lot of people that are checking to make sure things are right,” Gu said. “Those are actually the perfect problem to throw sort of LLM-style AI against.”
When it comes to AI benefitting their business, that’s how Upstart is approaching it.
“…It’s really important to just remember that the LLM models coming from Anthropic or OpenAI or any of the others, Gemini, they are really good at solving problems that humans are good at solving and they can do it at scale. They can work 24/7. You can spin up 100 of them in parallel and have them work. But no matter how many humans you have, you don’t want that army of humans underwriting loans for you,” Gu said.
‘Face-to-Face is a Must In This Industry’: How Julian Hernandez of Idea Financial Earned a Trophy Along The Way
November 24, 2025
“Face-to-face interactions are a must in our industry, and not only through conferences but even though we’re based out of Miami, I’m very familiar with the Long Island Railroad,” said Julian Hernandez, Director of Revenue at Idea Financial.
On multiple occasions, Hernandez has gone from New York City to eastern Long Island and then back again to meet with referral partners. It’s part of his job, meeting face-to-face with ISOs, and working with them to maximize the spread of Idea’s business line of credit products. He says through this experience he’s actually become “best buddies” with the LIRR.
“It’s good for morale, it’s good for relationships. It’s good not only for the reps internally on my end, but I’m sure for the reps on [the ISOs’] end to see and put a face to the lender that they’re always working with,” he said.
Hernandez will go wherever it’s necessary. Just last month that initiative placed him on the opposite side of the country, in a room full of ISOs and competitors that had gathered to play poker on the eve of the big B2B Finance Expo at the Wynn in Las Vegas. For Hernandez, who was born and raised in Colombia and only ever plays poker in a casual setting with friends, he had not gone in with any expectation of winning the friendly tournament. He wanted to network.
“That’s probably one of the main reasons why I wanted to join the tournament,” Hernandez said. “It’s just an opportunity for us, for anyone really that goes to the conference, to connect with either people that they know from the industry, or branch out or meet with new faces in an environment that isn’t so corporate.”
As the cards were dealt and the hands played, Hernandez found himself at the final table of the night and walked away with 2nd place overall, a title that garnered him a trophy and a small prize.
While he was happy to earn the rank of #2, it was the social setting of it all that he felt was the best part.
“It’s more of a relaxed environment where people are just having a good time, playing a game, having a drink, and really just getting to know each other on a personal level,” Hernandez said. “That’s the best kind of way to make relationships, right? It’s kind of like when people always say the best kind of business is made on a golf course.”
But in the two days that followed at B2B Finance Expo, Hernandez and the Idea team that was there along with him were in business mode.
“97% of our business is through ISO channels and through all the relationships we’ve established with brokers in our industry, and we’re looking to expand that further,” Hernandez said, noting that there are big growth plans in the works for 2026.
Idea’s line of credit is not like an MCA or the term loans commonly found around the industry. It’s a true revolving line. After every payment made, it replenishes the line. The process to get approved is quick and easy. Hernandez said that some brokers are shocked by how good it is and that larger businesses, ones that tend to be the most rate sensitive, find it very attractive.
When deBanked first covered Idea Financial in 2019, Hernandez had not yet joined the company. He came on board the following year during covid and started in an entry level position. He’s since moved up the ranks and now oversees the entire sales and marketing department, which includes anything from ISO relations to marketing. He cites the team and the structure of how it operates as being the key to success. One of the things he first learned when he started was that Idea Financial was always looking to help businesses one way or another.
“I found my way to Idea Financial and have loved it ever since,” Hernandez said.
And while business and networking are important parts of the job, regardless of where that takes him, he is proud of how well he did in that poker tournament at B2B Finance Expo.
“I was happy with my 2nd place trophy,” Hernandez said. “It’s actually right there,” he exclaimed while pointing at it. “It’s back in my office!”
PayPal: Business Loan and Working Capital Originations of $600M in Q3
November 3, 2025PayPal originated approximately $600M in business loans and working capital loans in the third quarter. A financial institution makes the loans to their clients and PayPal purchases the receivables and services the portfolio. Under this basis the company has purchased $1.6B worth of receivables for the first nine months of 2025.
“The allowance for credit losses at September 30, 2025 for our merchant receivable portfolio was $163 million, an increase from $113 million at December 31, 2024,” PayPal stated in its earnings report. “The increase in allowance for credit losses was related to a decline in credit quality of merchant loans outstanding primarily from modifications in acceptable risk parameters in 2024, which included broadened eligibility. In the second quarter of 2025, we updated our expected credit loss model for all portfolios to utilize multiple economic scenarios rather than the single scenario previously utilized. These changes did not have a material impact on our allowance for credit losses in the period.”
FICOs Are 580 and Below, Repayment Rates Are Above 97%
September 23, 2025Block recently published an interview with Juan Hernandez, the company’s Head of Credit and Underwriting for its consumer lending divisions. Among the most interesting details Hernandez revealed is that 70% of Cash App Borrow customers have FICO scores of 580 or below, but their repayment rates are above 97%.
“That is only possible because our models are continuously learning from customer activity across Cash App and Afterpay,” Hernandez said of it.
Block sees income, deposits, spending patterns, savings behavior, and repayment behavior across the spectrum of its ecosystem and is able to use that data to make better predictions than legacy third party credit indicators.
“The future of credit will be based on actual repayment ability, not outdated proxies,” Hernandez said. “With near real-time data and modern modeling, we can finally build a system that is more inclusive and safer than traditional credit scores that look backward, update slowly, and often misclassify people who are capable of managing credit.”
Block has made a name for itself in the lending space. Cash App Borrow originated $9B in loans in 2024 while its sister company Square Loans, which provides capital to small businesses, is the largest online small business lender that deBanked tracks. Square Loans originated $5.7B in 2024.
In March of this year Block received FDIC approval for its industrial bank, Square Financial Services Inc, to offer the Cash App Borrow loan product directly.
Idea Financial Hits Milestone, Will Still Fund in Texas
July 9, 2025
Idea Financial, a nationwide small business lender, recently surpassed $1 billion in funding since inception.
“This is a historic milestone,” said Larry Bassuk, president and co-founder of Idea Financial. “Only a few years ago, this company was just a concept with potential. Like many of the small businesses we serve, we started with confidence, grit, and the unyielding belief that we would succeed. Today, I can proudly announce that Idea Financial’s impact on the small business lending community is significant and positive. This moment belongs to our team, past and present, whose dedication has gotten us here.”
Because the company does term loans and lines of credit, it is not impacted by the recently-passed sales-based financing legislation in Texas and will continue to fund there like normal.
For background, Bassuk and Idea Financial CEO Justin Leto, actually started out in the legal profession as attorneys before taking a risk in small business lending. When deBanked first interviewed the duo in 2019, they said, “We’re not from the finance space, we’re not from the alternative lending space either, we came at this opportunity with a different approach.”
At that time, Idea had only funded $50 million since inception. Much of Idea’s growth since then can be attributed to their broker business, which it is still growing.
“Brokers and referral partners are critical to Idea’s success,” the company said. “While our borrowers are our clients, we also consider brokers and referral partners as clients by our team. We value their business and have made it a focus to develop close, mutually beneficial relationships with them.”
“We have been so fortunate to work with such a talented team, all of whom have contributed to the incredible growth of Idea,” said Leto. “We identified a problem with small business funding when we embarked on this journey, and we are so proud to have played a role in providing the solution that has fueled so many Main Street success stories.”
Prosper Marketplace Originated $2.2B in Consumer Loans in 2024
March 28, 2025
Prosper Marketplace, the last vestige of the P2P lending era, put up a repeat origination performance in 2024 vs 2023. The company originated $2.2B in consumer loans in 2024 and in 2023. That number had hit $3.3B in 2022 as part of the post-covid boom and had come in at only $1.9B in 2021.
Only 7% of its originations in 2024 were from the “note channel” aka the peer-to-peer platform.
“We have incurred operating losses in prior years and may continue to incur net losses in the future,” the company disclosed in its annual report. “For the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, we incurred net losses of $54.1 million and $106.5 million, respectively. Additionally, from our inception through December 31, 2024, we have had an accumulated deficit of $644.2 million. We believe our liquidity needs for the next twelve months, and for the foreseeable future beyond that period, can be met through transaction fees, servicing fees, net interest income, other revenue, proceeds from sales of loans and securitizations, realized gains from the Credit Card portfolio and Cash and Cash Equivalents.”
Prosper used to compete against LendingClub as a peer-to-peer investment platform. LendingClub, however, discontinued its peer-to-peer business five years ago when it acquired Radius Bank.
Upstart: 91% of loans fully automated
February 19, 2025AI-based online consumer lending company Upstart just wrapped up a strong year, generating a tiny $2.8M net loss on $219M in revenue. Upstart was known for AI in the fintech industry before AI became the buzzword it is now. Ninety-one percent of the company’s loans in 2024 were fully automated with no human involvement, and 93% of instant approvals converted to funded loans.
Notably, a significant amount of their loan volume is generated by direct mail.
“Whenever our models get better, we tend to get more volume from partners, DM — direct mail converts better so that we can actually increase the amount of direct mail we send,” said CEO David Girouard.
While the company halted its earlier plans to add small business loans to its product mix, it still estimates the size of the market in its quarterly presentations. And according to that it’s an $895 billion market annually.
Analysts on the call liked what they heard about Upstart’s 2024 performance.
“2024 was a year of rapid quarter by quarter improvement for Upstart, and the fourth quarter clearly took the cake,” said Girouard. “Considering the weak environment we faced at the beginning of the year, we couldn’t have asked for a stronger finish. In Q4, our business grew dramatically across all our product categories on a sequential basis, delivered Adjusted EBITDA at levels not seen since the first quarter of 2022, and came within a whisker of returning to GAAP profitability.”
Upstart Hit With Another Lawsuit
October 13, 2022A new lawsuit brought by a shareholder of Upstart is also being brought derivatively on behalf of Upstart. That’s because plaintiff alleges that the Directors of the company would otherwise have to sue themselves or the company’s executives for the damage caused, a highly unlikely course of action.
Plaintiff alleges the company or certain directors and executives violated Section 14(a) of the Exchange Act, breached fiduciary duties, were unjustly enriched, abused their control, grossly mismanaged the company, wasted corporate assets, and violated Section 10(b) and 21D of the Exchange Act.
Things are not exactly great in shareholder land. The company’s stock as of May 4th close was $93.57 and is now currently hovering around $24.49. The plunge began when the company released its poorly-received quarterly earnings on May 9th. For a long time, the company had asserted it was not a balance sheet lender, but a shift in economic conditions was causing that to change.
The unwelcome quarterly earnings report was coincidentally timed after Upstart CEO David Girouard had sold more than $200M worth of company stock in the previous 8 month span and co-founder and SVP Paul Gu sold $140M worth over nearly the same time period.
Then, in August, Girouard said, “In the last few months, lenders and institutional credit investors reacted more quickly and abruptly than we anticipated. Despite the fact that our bank partners have seen consistently strong credit performance, meaning portfolios performing at or above plan across quarterly cohorts, several of them have paused or reduced originations due to fear about the future of the economy.”
Plaintiff alleges that false and misleading statements allowed the stock price to be propped up while insiders sold their stock on material non-public information. The full complaint can be viewed here.
This lawsuit is separate from a securities class action filed earlier this year.
