If Kabbage Wanted to Buy, Would OnDeck Sell?

A single line in a Reuters story was enough to cause OnDeck’s stock to jump by as much as 11% on Thursday. Industry blogs and news outlets had reacted pretty quickly to word of an unnamed source claiming that OnDeck is a potential acquisition target if Kabbage raises a new equity round. OnDeck closed for the day up only 6.5%.

BloombergGadfly columnist Gillian Tan, wrote that a deal was not very likely because of how much investors are already down since the IPO. “Assuming Kabbage were to propose a traditional takeover at a standard premium, it probably would be swiftly rejected by On Deck’s earliest investors, who still own a combined stake of more than 45 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg,” she wrote. “With the stock trading at less than a quarter of its 2014 initial public offering price, it would take a generous premium to get them interested.”

OnDeck also lent nearly twice as much as Kabbage last year and obviously still has faith in leadership considering that their pre-IPO CEO is still in charge. There’s little to suggest at this time that OnDeck would be willing to throw in the towel and sell out to a smaller, younger competitor and book a big loss for shareholders who have been with them since the beginning.

The day before the rumor started, OnDeck actually announced that it had increased its asset-backed revolving credit facility with Deutsche Bank by approximately $52 million to a total of up to approximately $214 million.