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Fears of Possible Recession Don’t Phase CRE Lenders
December 16, 2019
Depending on your vantage point, a slowdown is either already in progress, just around the bend or several years away. But some alternative commercial real estate professionals are trying to filter out the noise.
Instead, they are more aggressively forging ahead with growth plans, including trying to grab market share from banks.
The commercial real estate lending market remains highly competitive and alternative lenders say they remain focused on looking for opportunities to expand their business, even as the possibility of recession looms. At present, a number of professionals don’t see an imminent threat of recession, and even if there is one, they say they stand to benefit from picking up business banks don’t want to take on—or can’t—because of increased regulatory controls imposed on them since the last recession.
There are plenty of opportunities for alternative commercial real estate lenders to get ahead, even in this environment, says Chris Hurn, founder and chief executive of Fountainhead Commercial Capital, a Lake Mary FL-based, non-bank direct small business lender in the commercial real estate lending space.
To be sure, alternative commercial real estate lenders say that for the most part, there hasn’t been a major pullback in their space. But due in part to mounting economic concerns and changing business priorities, banks—which had already scaled back from their pre- Great Recession exuberance—have been taking an even more cautious approach to lending. This is especially true in certain regions of the country, or in sectors deemed higher-risk such as hospitality and retail, alternative lenders say. While the pullback hasn’t been broad-based, it’s been enough in some cases to create strategic pockets of opportunity for opportunistic non-bank lenders such as private equity funds, debt funds, crowdfunding portals and others.
For many of these commercial real estate professionals, whether or not a recession is on the horizon is not a guessing game that’s worth playing. And with good reason, given how much disagreement there is among market watchers, investment management professionals and others about where the economy is headed.
Certain economic data continues to be strong, for instance, but political and geopolitical factors such as trade wars continue to raise red flags. Then there’s the fatalistic notion that the economy has been on a tear for so long that it’s due for a pullback at some point. This all translates into a hodgepodge of speculation and indecision about the economy’s direction. The dichotomy is evident from the difference in sentiment expressed in two fund manager surveys from Bank of America Merrill Lynch taken a month apart. October’s survey was decidedly bearish; by November, the bulls were back, muddying the waters even more.
Instead of wavering in indecision, however, some alternative commercial real estate players are hunkering down and highly focused on building their business in a cautiously optimistic and strategic manner.
Hurn of Fountainhead Commercial Capital predicts a number of increased opportunities for alternative commercial real estate lenders due to pullback from banks and a growing need for capital. He cautions alternative lenders against being too pessimistic and losing out on potentially lucrative market opportunities as a result.
“I think we might be going into a period of slightly slower growth, but none of the indicators suggest we’re remotely close to where things were 10 years ago,” Hurn says. “If we’re not careful, we’re going to talk our way into recession. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
Indeed, even as perplexing questions about the economy’s long-term health persist, some alternative commercial lenders anticipate growth in the coming year. Evan Gentry, chief executive and founder of Money360, a tech-enabled direct lender specializing in commercial real estate, says the company’s loan origination business is on track to close between $650 million and $700 million in 2019. That’s expected to increase to about $1 billion in 2020, fueled by growth in some strategic markets, including Washington DC, Atlanta, Miami and Charlotte, N.C., where the company is seeking to add loan origination personnel. Gentry says the company also continues to experience strength in many of the western markets, including the intermountain west markets of Colorado, Utah and Idaho, where growth is expected to continue.
CommLoan, a commercial real-estate lending marketplace in Scottsdale, Ariz., also sees strategic opportunities to grow in this environment. Mitch Ginsberg, the company’s co-founder and chief executive, predicts 2020 will be a strong growth year for his company, after a several-year beta period. CommLoan has plans, for example, to start hiring account executives to build relationships in additional states. Initially, the focus will be on institutions in the Southwestern U.S., with plans to add lenders in Texas, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico in the early part of 2020, Ginsberg says.
Though certain regions or business lines within commercial real estate may be experiencing some pullback, he says his overall outlook for the economy and commercial real estate remains strong. “There is still an enormous amount of activity,” he says. “If and when a correction does happen, it’s going to be a lot softer and not that deep and not that long because of the fundamentals in the economy.”
FINDING WAYS TO COMPETE MORE EFFECTIVELY WITH BANKS AND OTHERS
Some commercial real estate professionals say they are focusing more attention on sectors, regions and concentrations that the banks aren’t going after so readily.
If an alternative lender can offer more money than a bank on a particular deal or offer more flexible terms, or do deals that traditional lenders simply won’t do, for example, then it’s a boon for them. For a slightly higher price, alternative lenders—especially those whose business model relies heavily on technology—are able to take on slightly riskier deals than a bank might be able to stomach, says Jacob Goldsmith, managing partner of Goldwolf Ventures LLC, a privately held alternative investment and asset management company with offices in Miami and Austin.
“Alternative lenders are a lot more nimble,” says Goldsmith, who keeps close tabs on the commercial real estate lending industry.
Especially given the ambiguous economic climate, there are several areas that could be prime opportunities for savvy alternative commercial real estate lenders to gain a leg up. For instance, some banks of late have shied away from certain special purchase property types like hotels, day care facilities and free-standing restaurants, says Hurn of Fountainhead Commercial Capital. These types of properties are traditionally seen as riskier in the latter part of an economic cycle.
Nonetheless, “there’s opportunity here for non-traditional lenders to step in and fill that gap,” he says. Retail loans are another category where banks have been pulling back. One reason banks are being more cautious is the sentiment that as online shopping becomes more pervasive, there’s less of a need for brick-and-mortar shops. This trend is underscored by the recent announcement of Transform Holdco—the company formed to buy the remaining assets of bankrupt retailer Sears Holdings Corp.—that it would close 96 Sears and Kmart stores by the end of February. Still, some industry watchers aren’t ready to concede retail’s demise.
While these types of announcements fan fears, concern over the death of retail is largely overblown, according to Troy Merkel, a partner and real estate senior analyst at RSM, which provides audit, tax and consulting services. “The banks are being too overly cautious,” he opines.
The opportunity for alternative lenders, he says, is not in funding loans that add to the supply, but rather in funding loans that change the existing supply. While the need for new development may not be as great, there is a growing demand for repurposed properties, he says. This includes upscaling an older mall or turning an existing retail building into a mixed use property, namely a mix of retail stores and multi-family apartment complexes. There is still a real need for these types of developments, Merkel says, and with banks shying away, the door is open for alternative lenders to “make a play,” he says.
Real estate professionals say they also see opportunities for alternative commercial real estate lenders to make loans in areas outside major metro cities, where the competition isn’t as strong.
“There will always be opportunities in the ups and downs, the ebbs and flows of the cycle. You just have to be a lot smarter in this part of the cycle,” says Goldsmith of Goldwolf Ventures.
BECOMING RECESSION-PROOF
Pockets of opportunity notwithstanding, alternative commercial real estate lenders have to play it smart, professionals say. For instance, they should not be overly bullish on a particular sector or throw caution to the wind when it comes to their underwriting practices.
That’s because when the market turns—as it inevitably will at some point—there will likely be more defaults and lenders that haven’t dotted their I’s and crossed their T’s will understandably face stronger headwinds. They need to keep their close eye on expenses as well, which may have ticked upward over the past several years. “People get complacent when times are good. This is probably not the time to be complacent anymore,” says Hurn of Fountainhead Commercial Capital.
Another protective measure against an eventual downturn is to diversify sales channels and property types. “If you put too many eggs in one basket, it’s a problem,” Hurn says.
It’s also important for lenders to have their guards up since higher risk deals can lead to losses if a recession hits. Lenders have to be smart when it comes to taking on risk, says Tim Milazzo, co-founder and chief executive of StackSource, an online marketplace for commercial real estate loans. “They have to have a certain expertise in underwriting these transactions correctly and assessing risk,” Milazzo says.
In light of significant ambiguity about where the economy is heading, Gentry of Money360 says his company is protecting itself by taking an ultra- conservative approach. This means, for instance, only making first-lien position loans secured against income producing properties at a loan-to-value ratio on average of 65 percent, he says. Some alternative lenders are making these loans at a loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent or 85 percent, but Gentry says this is too high a rate for his taste. Also, Money360’s loans are also generally short- term—in the two-to-three-year range, which reduces some of the risk and seems especially prudent at this point in the cycle, he says.
When the market turns—as it inevitably will at some point—there will be more loan defaults, and those that are on the more aggressive end of lending will bear most of the challenges, he says.
He cautions other alternative lenders to avoid taking on excessive risk. “You’ve got to be thinking ahead and planning and lending as if the downturn is right around the corner—because it could be,” he says. Even taking a conservative approach, there are still significant business opportunities, he says.
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR RECESSIONARY OPPORTUNITIES
Meanwhile, if a recession does hit, alternative commercial real estate lenders say they will have even more opportunities to gain market share, participate in workout financing and hire key personnel. Alternative lenders that are more steeped in technology may potentially have even more of an upper hand since this can enable them to close deals much more efficiently and quickly and at a lower cost, while at the same time giving borrowers broader access.
“In a tighter market, every reduction in rate and cost will make more of a significant difference to borrowers than it does at the moment,” says Ginsberg of CommLoan, the commercial real-estate lending marketplace.
Although there are a growing number of alternative commercial real estate lenders who are relying more heavily on technology than they did in the past, commercial real estate lending still hasn’t flourished online to the extent personal and small business lending has. One reason is that the loans are larger and human intervention is often seen as beneficial, says Gentry of Money360.
However, online lending within the commercial real estate lending space is still on the horizon, according to Ginsberg of CommLoan. “It’s slow-go, but it’s inevitable,” he says.
Fintech Sandbox? States, OCC Mull Regulatory Options
May 2, 2017It’s called the “New England Regulatory FinTech Sandbox.”
State banking regulators across the six New England states are exploring the creation of a regional compact that would allow financial technology companies to experiment with new and expanded products in “a safe, collaborative environment,” says Cynthia Stuart, deputy commissioner of the banking division at the Vermont Department of Financial Regulation.
Stuart asserts that she and her New England cohorts are adroitly positioned and uniquely qualified to oversee laboratories of finance. In Vermont, for example, she heads an agency that oversees regulation and examination of banks, trust companies, and credit unions as well as such nonbank financial providers as mortgage brokers, money transmitters, payday lenders and debt adjusters.
Financial watchdogs at the state level, Stuart observes, “are already witnesses to a wide breadth of financial services offerings and understand how they impact communities and consumers. As technology intersects with financial regulation,” she adds, “state regulators also appreciate the need to be open to technological innovation while balancing risk and return.”
The regional fintech sandbox is the brainchild of David Cotney, the former Massachusetts Commissioner of Banks, and Cornelius Hurley, director of Boston University’s Center for Finance, Law and Policy. The sandbox stitches together elements of Project Innovate, a development program for fintechs inaugurated by the U.K.’s banking regulator, and the European Union’s “passport” model for cross-border banking operations.
In the U.K., the Financial Conduct Authority is supporting both small and large businesses “that are developing products and services that could genuinely improve consumers’ experience and outcomes,” according to a 2015 report by the London agency. In harmonizing the regulatory regime for the sandbox across state lines of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut, the program emulates the EU’s “passport.” Since 1989, a bank licensed in one EU country has been able to set up shop there while – thanks to the “passport” –operating seamlessly throughout the 28 states of the EU (soon to be 27 after “Brexit”).
“It’s still preliminary,” Cotney says of the proposed New England sandbox-cum-passport, “but we’ve talked to the financial regulators in all six states and there’s universal openness. Nobody want to be seen as being a barrier to innovation.”
(Barred by law from lobbying in Massachusetts, Cotney hands off the Bay State duties to Hurley while he meets with regulators and other officials in the five remaining New England states. In March, Cotney was named a director at Cross River Bank, a Fort Lee, N.J.-based, $600 million-asset community bank known for its partnerships with peer-to-peer lenders including Lending Club, Rocket Loans and Loan Depot.)
This nascent effort of financial Transcendentalism in New England is, meanwhile, taking place against the backdrop of an increasingly acrimonious battle between the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and state banking authorities over the licensing and regulation of fintech companies. At issue is the OCC’s plan announced in a December, 2016 “whitepaper” to issue a “special purpose national bank” charter to nonbank fintechs.
Siding with the OCC are the fintechs themselves, including Lending Club, Kabbage, Funding Circle, ParityPay, WingCash. “A special purpose national bank charter for fintechs creates an opportunity for greater access to banking products, empowers a diverse and often underserved customer base, promotes efficiency in financial services, and encourages industry competition,” Kabbage wrote to the OCC in a sample industry comment to its whitepaper (which is on the agency’s website).
Also on board for the OCC’s fintech charter are powerful Washington trade associations such as Financial Innovation Now, the membership of which comprises Amazon, Apple, Google, Intuit and PayPal, and industry research organizations like the Center for Financial Services Innovation. The U.S. banking establishment also appears largely supportive of the OCC. While qualifying its imprimatur somewhat, the American Bankers Association declared that it “views the OCC’s intent to issue charters as an opportunity to further bring financial technology into the banking system…”
But an irate army of detractors is condemning the fintech charter outright. Consumer groups, small-business organizations, community banks, and state attorneys general number among the furious opposition. No cohort, however, has been more hostile to the OCC’s fintech charter than state banking regulators.
Maria T. Vullo, superintendent of New York State’s Department of Financial Services, has emerged as a firebrand. “The imposition of an entirely new federal regulatory scheme on an already fully functional and deeply rooted state regulatory landscape,” she wrote to the OCC earlier this year, “will invite serious risk of regulatory confusion and uncertainty, stifle small business innovation, create institutions that are too big to fail, imperil crucially important state-based consumer protection laws, and increase the risks presented by nonbank entities.”
Although big-state regulators from New York, California and Illinois have been in the vanguard of opposition, their unhappiness with the OCC is widely shared. Vermont regulator Stuart, who emphasizes the need for regulators “to embrace change,” nonetheless disparages the OCC’s endeavor.
“Of particular concern is the creation of an un-level playing field for traditional, full-service Vermont institutions to the advantage of the proposed nonbank charter,” she told deBanked. “The special purpose national nonbank charter would not be subject to most federal banking laws and would be regulated with a confidential OCC agreement. The disparity in regulatory approaches is concerning.”
What had been confined to a war of words – rounds of angry denunciations packed into letters and press releases directed at the OCC — reached fever-pitch last week when, on April 26, the Conference of State Banking Supervisors filed suit against the OCC in federal court. The lawsuit seeks to prevent the agency “from moving forward with an unlawful attempt to create a national nonbank charter that will harm markets, innovation and consumers,” according to a CSBS statement.
Among other things, the conference’s complaint charges that by creating a national bank charter for nonbank companies, the OCC has “gone far beyond the limited authority granted to it by Congress under the National Bank Act and other federal banking laws. Those laws,” the conference’s statement continues, “authorize the OCC to only charter institutions that engage in the ‘business of banking.’”
Under the National Bank Act, the conference’s complaint asserts, a financial institution must “at a minimum” accept deposits to qualify as a bank. By “attempting to create a new special purpose charter for nonbank companies that do not take deposits,” the complaint adds, the OCC is acting outside its legal authority.
Christopher Cole, senior regulatory counsel at the Independent Community Bankers Association – a Washington, D.C. trade association of Main Street bankers known for punching above its weight — asserts that the state banking regulators are on solid ground. “The whole question comes down to what should a bank be for purposes of a national bank charter,” he says in a telephone interview. “The Bank Holding Company Act (of 1956), federal bankruptcy laws, and tax laws – all three – define banks as insured depository institutions. It’s right there in the statutes. So our recommendation,” he says, “is for the OCC to go back to Congress” and ask for the explicit authority to create a fintech charter.
Because the OCC has “short-circuited rule-making” protocol required by another law – known as the Administrative Procedures Act — “the process hasn’t been kosher,” Cole adds.
Many members of Congress are also expressing outrage at the OCC. Not only have Democratic Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jeff Merkley of Oregon strenuously objected to the OCC’s fintech charter, but on March 10, 2017, Jeb Hensarling, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, fired off a “hold-your-horses” letter to Comptroller Thomas J. Curry. Signed by 34 House Republicans, the March 10 letter reminded Curry that his term of office would officially be up at the end of April, 2017, and urged him not to “rush this decision” regarding the fintech charters.
“If the OCC proceeds in haste to create a new policy for fintech charters without providing the details for additional comment, or rushing to finalize the charter prior to the confirmation of a new Comptroller,” the letter from Hensarling et alia declares, “please be aware that we will work with our colleagues to ensure that Congress will examine the OCC’s actions and, if appropriate, will overturn them.”
Never mind the stern letter from Chairman Hensarling, or the fact that an impressive array of Congressmembers on both sides of the aisle are bipartisanly unhappy, or that state banking regulators’ have filed suit, or that Curry’s replacement as Comptroller is overdue: the OCC is pushing ahead. The agency will play host to a bevy of financial technology companies and other financial institutions on May 16 for two days of get-acquainted sessions in its San Francisco office.
Billed as “office hours,” the West Coast meetings will consist of one-on-one, hour-long informational meetings “to discuss the OCC’s perspective on responsible innovation,” Beth Knickerbocker, the OCC’s acting chief innovation officer, says in a press release.
The office hours, Knickerbocker adds, “are an opportunity to have candid discussions with OCC staff regarding financial technology, new products or services, partnering with a bank or fintech company, or other matters related to financial innovation.”
Back in New England, Hurley, the Boston University law professor advocating the regional sandbox, says: “No one knows where fintech is going. But one place it’s not going is away.”
