Nerdwallet: Continued “Pressure in SMB Loan Originations”, Search Engine Traffic Flux

“We continue to see pressure in SMB loan originations, with rates remaining elevated and underwriting remaining tight,” said Lauren StClair, CFO of NerdWallet on the Q3 earnings call, “However, this was more than offset by growth in our renewals portfolio, which showcases the benefit of our vertical integration strategy and the reoccurring nature of the vertical when we pursue a higher touch experience.”

NerdWallet CEO Tim Chen further said that it was a “tough macro environment in SMB loans.”

Their SMB business overall, which includes several products, not just loan referrals, did well however in Q3, generating double digit YoY growth for a total of $27.8M in revenue.

Of additional note is NerdWallet’s commentary on search engine traffic and its impact to its business.

“After a stronger start of the quarter, we saw some additional deterioration in our search visibility in mid-Q3,” said Chen. “While traffic to our monetizing shopping-oriented content started to rebound as we exited the quarter, traffic to our non-monetizing learning-oriented content did not. As a result, Monthly Unique Users were down 7% year-over-year in Q3.”

deBanked drew attention to their search engine observations this past August after hearing Chen muse that the current state of organic search result rankings were not actually helping business owners get business loans. Chen dived into this subject yet again on the Q3 call, the full quote of which is worth including:

“So, during our Q2 call, our search visibility was broadly stabilizing and actually starting to rebound a little bit. And then soon after our Q2 call, things took a turn for the worse. So with our shopping traffic, things got worse in August and September. But then going into October, rebounded back to a level that was a bit better even than where we were when we did the Q2 call. We think we did some things on our end to clean up the user experience that were net positive. Now, there were some exceptions, so for example, parts of credit cards and personal loans are still lagging. But, overall, we got a pretty good place – we got to a pretty good place on shopping pages and feel like we’ve figured out what to improve.

Conversely, for that far bigger bucket of education-oriented traffic that is less commercial in nature, things got progressively worse throughout the quarter and recently stabilized at a lower level. So, what’s happening there is a renewed push by search engines to incorporate their own answers directly into the search results, like you mentioned AI overviews as an example. So, for those of you who have been following search over the years, this isn’t really anything new. So, for example, at one point when you search for the weather, it didn’t show up directly in the results, and eventually a module was inserted there. That trend towards the simpler stuff being pulled into search results is inevitable, and we’ve always been more insulated from that, but historically it happens in waves, and sometimes haircuts are MUUs.

So, we’ve generally seen a re-baselining after any major changes, and then eventual growth from there as you lap the impact. Oftentimes, those changes are rolled back. And so, over the last 10 years, I’d say these changes come in waves, and we’re in the middle of a big wave, and as long as we focus on delivering consumer value, we’re steering in the right direction, and things tend to sort themselves out. So, this headwind is driving our outlook for further MUU deceleration in Q4, because of the full quarter impact of some of the stuff that happened with those headwinds.

Now, in the long run, I do think an improving search experience is a win for the overall ecosystem and keeps it healthy and growing. And, really, I’d say the silver lining here is that Q3 was pretty brutal as far as some of the headwinds we faced in organic search, especially in highly commercial areas, and being able to hit like a 12% NGOI margin in Q3 in spite of that headwind is really a testament to some of the progress we’ve made in building a brand and a direct relationship with our users and our increasing competitiveness in other channels.”