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Messages - Larry321

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Investors - LC / My Decaying Star .......
« on: March 15, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
Yes, you reoplied to me months ago, but I finally decided to wind down my LC investments and not reinvest. Instead I am slowly moving my money out of LC and into Fidelity funds.

Quote"> from: andy3109 on August 26, 2016, 10:21:11 PM
Investors - LC /
« on: March 15, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
For the past couple of months, I have not been buying new loans, and instead I am moving money out of Lending Club and over to Fidelity.
My returns have dropped, and write offs have been increasing. In 4 years, as loans mature, I will have moved all my money out of LC.  I will have made money, but not as much as I would have liked.

Investors - LC / Worst Month Yet
« on: December 23, 2016, 12:00:00 AM »
Here is more confirmation of the vaidity of my devcision to migrate out of LC.

I have been doing well with Fidelity using the advice I get on
Investors - LC / Worst Month Yet
« on: November 30, 2016, 12:00:00 AM »

Who is leaving the mutual fund at inopportune times? The managers of the fund or investors like us?
I measure all my investments against what I could get if I just left my money in an S&P 500 linked fund. 

At the moment (actually, for the past 10 years) my Fidelity investments have been earning me more, way more, than the 4-5% I am getting from LC right now.

I am convinced that if I understood the statistical tool of factor analysis, I could use it to choose LC loans more effectively.

Quote"> from: rawraw on November 28, 2016, 10:20:41 AM
Investors - LC / Worst Month Yet
« on: November 28, 2016, 12:00:00 AM »
I have lost as much money to defaults as I have made in Lending Club.
I am still ahead and have made money, but I would make more money if I shifted my money to Fidelity and polaced it in a DJ linked fund.
Slowly, I am moving my funds out, not reinvesting.
Investors - LC / New to LC investing
« on: November 07, 2016, 12:00:00 AM »
I think the proper investment goal should always be to meet or better the Dow.
You can always put your money into a DJ fund and match the market. The goal should be to beat the market.

from: jonah on November 06, 2016, 09:49:19 AM
Investors - LC / My Decaying Star .......
« on: August 11, 2016, 11:00:00 PM »
I have changed my expectations for my LC investments from 9% to 7% to anything between 6-7%

At least we are still making money.

Investors - LC / Moved into my new Office today
« on: August 02, 2016, 11:00:00 PM »

Now you have to find out where those guys go for lunch, and casually sit at a table near them and listen carefully!  ;)
Investors - LC / Idea: LC but with partially secured consumer loans
« on: July 27, 2016, 11:00:00 PM »
bdonovan's questions which started this thread are terribly interesting!

The implied question in his post is how to increase the probability that a borrower will pay back a loans.
Another way to put it is, how to reduce defaults.

The better you can predict default rate, the better returns.
I do not know how interest rates are determined for an individual. I suppose that FICO is a primary variable used in that formula. I assume that FICO is a good predcitor of financial reliability-risk.

I suppose if you did a deep interview, a full psychological assessment, and took one of the borrower's children as a hostage, you could increase probability of repayment. I suppose that more in depth data collection would cost more.  There has got to be some set of data which are the best predictors of probability of default. I guess those variables could be determined using factor analysis.

Since any statistical prediction only has a particular margin of error, the more loans the less the variance.
This all and bdonovan's question, makes me want to learn more about the science and math of making loans.
I had taken stats in grad school, but I just don't remember enough to solve this problem, now.
I do wonder if LC gathers enough data and provides the data to us for us to be able to improve the prediction of default rates.

Investors - LC /
« on: July 26, 2016, 11:00:00 PM »
Investors - LC / good news finally
« on: July 22, 2016, 11:00:00 PM »
For me, the good news is that loads of G, F and E rated notes are returning.

As far as Folio goes, immediately after a note gets issued, I list in on Folio at between a 5% to 8% markup.
I don't seriously expect it be bought, but I figure, that if I can get even one person to buy a 27% loan at 5-8% within the first couple of months, and then I take that money and buy another loan, I have profited right away.

Off Topic / Master Thesis Topic
« on: July 14, 2016, 11:00:00 PM »
Did you ever find an interesting topic for your thesis?

What was your major?  A thesis for behavioral economics would ask a different question than a thesis for finance.
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