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My Decaying Star .......

Started by Peter, March 08, 2017, 11:00:00 PM

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SeattleSun

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For totally personal reasons I have to unwind my 1200 active loan portfolio of mostly 3 year $100 dollar loans.

So far I have chosen to just let them run off.

At the end of this month (June 16) I will have about $10,000 to withdrawal.  More than I would have guessed.

I am trying to get an idea of what this decay will look like going forward.

Anyone done this before or can see the future. 

Is there a better way to do this?   Suggestions welcome   https://forum.lendacademy.com/Smileys/default/smiley.gif" alt=":)" title="Smiley" class="smiley" />

I have a filo account but don't want to sell a significant portfolio at a discount, just stubborn.

TIA

Its a Prosper account but that shouldn't really matter in regards to this question.

AnilG

You receiving about $4,000 in monthly payments alone (~ 1,200 x $100 / 36 months +). Rest most probably is the prepayments if loans are relatively new. IMO, your monthlies might settle at about $3-6K with time.

TravelingPennies

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Thanks AnilG, 

I pulled $9,000 out at the end of June. 

But the rate of cash build up has slowed down and is only $1,300 for the first 6 days of July.

Half Right

im all in 36 month notes and i think based upon the prior month it will take about 13 months to liquidate. Also waiting it out patiently

anabio

I originally purchased 1,426 notes at mostly $25 per note in A B C. Started buying in March 2014. Whole $30,000 fully invested within 3 months (by end of may 2014). Re-invested earnings from June 2014 to Jan 2015. In Jan of 2015 I started to see the writing on the wall. I can't say I did much number crunching (not that kind of guy anymore) but intuition seemed to indicate something was  not right with charge off rates. I also started worrying more about a recession coming (co-incidentally???) right after this Nov. election. (They can't use chewing gum and  baling wire forever). At that time my account was worth $31,900. Letting things pay off "normally" I now have $7,193 of my original $31,900 left. The majority of those remaining notes will pay off fully by May 2017.

I stopped buying notes and started taking money out in Jan 2015. Of the 1426 notes, I have:
737 left (current)
541 paid off early
7 in grace
6 late 16-30
8 late 31-120
2 default
115 charged off.

NOTE 1: You may not get as many paid off early as me because LC is in a rising interest rate period. I got quite a bit paid off early because four or so months after I purchased most of these notes LC went into a decreasing interest rate period so people refinanced. I'm still getting between 20-25 notes paying off early each month.

NOTE 2: As I said in a note on another topic I don't think you can count on defaults tapering off after the 1 year point. My (conservative) estimates show I will have just as many notes if not more default/charged off after the 12 month point as under the 12 month point.




Larry321

I have changed my expectations for my LC investments from 9% to 7% to anything between 6-7%

At least we are still making money.



RT45

@SeattleSun - were you able to get access then to Folio as an LLC structure?



TravelingPennies

And3109,

Perhaps my portofolio has reached maturity.  My adjusted net annual return has fallen from close to 9% to about 6.15%.
My adjusted account value has not increased in a month.

Perhaps it is time to allow my notes to mature and not reinvest.

https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=3965.msg37353#msg88888888Quote"> from: andy3109 on August 26, 2016, 10:21:11 PM

TravelingPennies

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Just an update that probably no one really cares about but ....

but then again I think you can no longer sell Prosper loans thru Folio if I remember correctly? 

So decay maybe your only exit strategy??


My Decaying Star (Prosper account) spun off $38k in cash the last 6 1/2 months of 2016.  I pulled the cash balance at the end of December 2016

So far in the first 10 weeks of 2017 it has built up $13k of cash in the account.   It has decayed from $98k to $48k in about 9 months

This at the higher end, about $6k/mo, of what AnilG anticipated (See  AnilG's post on June 26, 2016)  I suspect I was the beneficiary of  a surge in prepayments.

The youngest loan in the account is from early June 2016 and there are 834 active loans.  Unfortunately I have a half dozen 5 year loans that will be the long tent pole in closing this account.


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