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Author Topic: My Decaying Star .......

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My Decaying Star .......
OP: June 25, 2016, 11:00:00 PM
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For totally personal reasons I have to unwind my 1200 active loan portfolio of mostly 3 year $100 dollar loans.

So far I have chosen to just let them run off.

At the end of this month (June 16) I will have about $10,000 to withdrawal.  More than I would have guessed.

I am trying to get an idea of what this decay will look like going forward.

Anyone done this before or can see the future. 

Is there a better way to do this?   Suggestions welcome   :)

I have a filo account but don't want to sell a significant portfolio at a discount, just stubborn.

TIA

Its a Prosper account but that shouldn't really matter in regards to this question.
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My Decaying Star .......
#1: June 25, 2016, 11:00:00 PM
You receiving about $4,000 in monthly payments alone (~ 1,200 x $100 / 36 months +). Rest most probably is the prepayments if loans are relatively new. IMO, your monthlies might settle at about $3-6K with time.
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T
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My Decaying Star .......
#2: July 06, 2016, 11:00:00 PM
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Thanks AnilG, 

I pulled $9,000 out at the end of June. 

But the rate of cash build up has slowed down and is only $1,300 for the first 6 days of July.
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H
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My Decaying Star .......
#3: July 06, 2016, 11:00:00 PM
im all in 36 month notes and i think based upon the prior month it will take about 13 months to liquidate. Also waiting it out patiently
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a
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My Decaying Star .......
#4: July 06, 2016, 11:00:00 PM
I originally purchased 1,426 notes at mostly $25 per note in A B C. Started buying in March 2014. Whole $30,000 fully invested within 3 months (by end of may 2014). Re-invested earnings from June 2014 to Jan 2015. In Jan of 2015 I started to see the writing on the wall. I can't say I did much number crunching (not that kind of guy anymore) but intuition seemed to indicate something was  not right with charge off rates. I also started worrying more about a recession coming (co-incidentally???) right after this Nov. election. (They can't use chewing gum and  baling wire forever). At that time my account was worth $31,900. Letting things pay off "normally" I now have $7,193 of my original $31,900 left. The majority of those remaining notes will pay off fully by May 2017.

I stopped buying notes and started taking money out in Jan 2015. Of the 1426 notes, I have:
737 left (current)
541 paid off early
7 in grace
6 late 16-30
8 late 31-120
2 default
115 charged off.

NOTE 1: You may not get as many paid off early as me because LC is in a rising interest rate period. I got quite a bit paid off early because four or so months after I purchased most of these notes LC went into a decreasing interest rate period so people refinanced. I'm still getting between 20-25 notes paying off early each month.

NOTE 2: As I said in a note on another topic I don't think you can count on defaults tapering off after the 1 year point. My (conservative) estimates show I will have just as many notes if not more default/charged off after the 12 month point as under the 12 month point.
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T
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My Decaying Star .......
#6: August 11, 2016, 11:00:00 PM
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R
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L
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My Decaying Star .......
#8: August 11, 2016, 11:00:00 PM
I have changed my expectations for my LC investments from 9% to 7% to anything between 6-7%

At least we are still making money.

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My Decaying Star .......
#10: August 11, 2016, 11:00:00 PM
@SeattleSun - were you able to get access then to Folio as an LLC structure?
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My Decaying Star .......
#11: August 14, 2016, 11:00:00 PM
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a
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T
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My Decaying Star .......
#13: August 28, 2016, 11:00:00 PM
And3109,

Perhaps my portofolio has reached maturity.  My adjusted net annual return has fallen from close to 9% to about 6.15%.
My adjusted account value has not increased in a month.

Perhaps it is time to allow my notes to mature and not reinvest.

from: andy3109 on August 26, 2016, 10:21:11 PM
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T
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My Decaying Star .......
#14: March 09, 2017, 12:00:00 AM
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Just an update that probably no one really cares about but ....

but then again I think you can no longer sell Prosper loans thru Folio if I remember correctly? 

So decay maybe your only exit strategy??


My Decaying Star (Prosper account) spun off $38k in cash the last 6 1/2 months of 2016.  I pulled the cash balance at the end of December 2016

So far in the first 10 weeks of 2017 it has built up $13k of cash in the account.   It has decayed from $98k to $48k in about 9 months

This at the higher end, about $6k/mo, of what AnilG anticipated (See  AnilG's post on June 26, 2016)  I suspect I was the beneficiary of  a surge in prepayments.

The youngest loan in the account is from early June 2016 and there are 834 active loans.  Unfortunately I have a half dozen 5 year loans that will be the long tent pole in closing this account.

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