Posting this to take the opportunity to whine and also see if others have seen anything similar.
Background; my portfolio's weighted average age was maybe 15 months this past January and is approaching 18 months now.
Perhaps 90%+ of the loans are D's and E's, and all are 36 month. I have 4000 - 5000 active notes (not fully paid or charged off).
Got my Nov statement today and the past two are my worst by far.
Simply taking the numbers from the 2015 monthly statements and computing charge offs as a percent of principal invested and as a percent of interest received I came up with the following (easy stuff; no NAR, IRR, XIRR, etc.):
Stmt Start Charged Off Charged Off
Date as a % as a %
of Interest of Principal
------------- ------------- -------------
01/01/2015 50.24% 0.66%
02/01/2015 31.27% 0.38%
03/01/2015 48.74% 0.69%
04/01/2015 40.07% 0.56%
05/01/2015 31.68% 0.41%
06/01/2015 46.76% 0.61%
07/01/2015 27.51% 0.39%
08/01/2015 48.92% 0.59%
09/01/2015 41.55% 0.52%
10/01/2015 61.86% 0.84% ****
11/01/2015 75.24% 0.92% ********
Simple Average 45.80% 0.60%
Yep that's right fans. This months score was 75% of my interest covered charge offs and I got to keep 25% for myself.
My average weighted portfolio age is way past the peak of the charge offs curve, so I don't understand what's going on.
Maybe I should just consider myself lucky that I at least made a profit.
There's been a lot of dissing of LC's ANAR, but it did warn me things were going south fast. It dropped almost a full % the past 2 months.
Now I'm going to have a beer (and cry in it).
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