Quarter end skew

[jheizer]

Anyone else getting to the point where end of the month + ACH settlement time = HUGE payment amounts?  Since my account is pretty young I am starting to develop a pretty large bias.  Todays payment total was about 1/5 of my monthly total.

[Fred93]

A shockingly large amount of money popped into my account today.  Do you understand what caused this?

[TravelingPennies]

Yeah.  Multiple quarter ends now having massive volume with most of them issuing in the end at the same time.  Usually a day or two after the quarter ends. In my case with my account only being ~7 months old It has a larger effect than others since it is fresh, but has gone through the surge twice now.

[lascott]

Yes, happened in both my few month old account and my 1.5 yrs old account.  Probably 1/6th of my monthly amount.

Doesn't line up with the cash flow expectations per day of month via LendingRobot, BlueVestment, or InterestRadar.

[TravelingPennies]

https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=3353.msg29964#msg88888888Quote"> from: jheizer on August 06, 2015, 11:37:00 PM

[TravelingPennies]

Next payment day for my loans. 
https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lendacademy.com%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Faction%3Ddlattach%3Btopic%3D3353.0%3Battach%3D1027&hash=2c8f09c9d8f3b5d7a20bd65e27a9ff0f" alt="" class="bbc_img" />

Edit: Y axis = number of loans if it wasn't obvious.

[TravelingPennies]

I don't think the quarter end explains what happened yesterday. It happened to both my accounts. My daily graphs are not anything like yours.

Here is my 1.5 yr account.

Image: http://i.imgur.com/8o0m0Ts.png" class="bbc_link" target="_blank">http://i.imgur.com/8o0m0Ts.png
https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F8o0m0Ts.png&hash=9c1cca3a31c442bb7ac14ffe7be423a0" alt="" class="bbc_img" />

[BruiserB]

https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=3353.msg29963#msg88888888Quote"> from: Fred93 on August 06, 2015, 11:33:59 PM

[TravelingPennies]

From my portfolio...
https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffred93.com%2Ffbi%2FLC-day-of-month-note-issue.png&hash=e9f27d0c662d6f42afd07e9338d3dad0" alt="" class="bbc_img" />
I have over 3000 notes so these stats should be pretty good.  Days 1,2,3 clearly win.

So when a Thursday falls on the 6th of the month, then that Thursday's payment will include payments due on all 3 big days (1st, 2nd, 3rd) of the month.  This produces a payment of about 15% of the month total, vs the normal daily payment which averages around 3.2% of the month total.  On the average, each Thursdays should pay about 9.7% of a months total.

Great detective work BruiserB.

[TravelingPennies]

Darn, I did that wrong.  Its the payment date that matters, not the issue date. 

https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffred93.com%2Ffbi%2FLC-Day-Of-Month-Stuff.png&hash=722a07937ef82d3c611265bb58458c98" alt="" class="bbc_img" />

Now this has me confused again, because the orange dots don't fit the theory we've been discussing.  The orange dots have some pretty interesting things going on.  I wonder why people select those payment dates.  Maybe a lot of people get paid in the middle of the month?

[storm]

https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=3353.msg29988#msg88888888Quote"> from: Fred93 on August 09, 2015, 12:29:38 AM

[Fred]

https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=3353.msg29988#msg88888888Quote"> from: Fred93 on August 09, 2015, 12:29:38 AM

[TravelingPennies]

Using my method to calculate actual amount from this thread: http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=3345.0" class="bbc_link" target="_blank">http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=3345.0
I created this google calendar.  You can see the formula I used above to build the data rows for the attached HTML.
100% is relative to each months maximum payment. Should be clear from looking at the legend in the calendar chart.
NOTE: Calendar is read vertically!  Weeks are horizontal.

Image: http://i.imgur.com/RNqpucM.png" class="bbc_link" target="_blank">http://i.imgur.com/RNqpucM.png
https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FRNqpucM.png&hash=5d8cfa6d69fe8a35fe8b9ea26dd176b1" alt="" class="bbc_img" />

NOTE: Calendar is read vertically!  Weeks are horizontal.
Image: http://i.imgur.com/8k2SLkQ.png" class="bbc_link" target="_blank">http://i.imgur.com/8k2SLkQ.png
https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F8k2SLkQ.png&hash=ca3d7696d2d5509ec2865e69b88c1cde" alt="" class="bbc_img" />

Attachment is the HTML file I used to create the calendar ( https://developers.google.com/chart/interactive/docs/gallery/calendar" class="bbc_link" target="_blank">https://developers.google.com/chart/interactive/docs/gallery/calendar )

[TravelingPennies]

https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=3353.msg29994#msg88888888Quote"> from: lascott on August 10, 2015, 02:04:58 AM

[TravelingPennies]

https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=3353.msg29992#msg88888888Quote"> from: Fred on August 10, 2015, 01:54:55 AM