Rawraw, I feel like we read many of the same blogs online.
Anyways, I have not seen any evidence that we are out of the recession that started in 08/09. I am not buying or holding any indexes currently because the risk way outweighs any potential returns. (I actually sold the last bit of my indices this afternoon - tired of of the endless volatility due to FOMC speculation.)
I have all my money in consumer credit, 3-4 value stocks, 4 special situations, and a pile of puts on a a massively overvalued equity. I believe that everything I own is insulated against a market sell-off/crash, although I would love to hear what I'm doing wrong from anyone with an opinion.
I've been giving this stuff a lot of thought lately.
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