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« on: January 19, 2020, 12:00:00 AM »
I made a buying robot that evaluates secondary market offers that has been running for over a year now. These days it is evaluating over 150k opportunities for buys each day. The chief problem is that of those 150k, only about 0.1% pass my criteria gauntlet and OF THOSE less than a dozen yield a SUCCESS_PENDING_SETTLEMENT. And OF THOSE only like 30% pass the "Cancelled, Payment Processing" check (I didn't put in a filter for payment date yet). That means of 150k evaluations in a day, 1 or 2 a day land as a success.

Most of these I can't control. I can't make people desire lower returns on their secondary market sells. I can't fix the payment processing checks on the LC backend. But I CAN control the gait of "list, evaluate, buy". The only signal that can be garnered here, though, is the ratio of SUCCESS_PENDING_SETTLEMENT to NOTE_NOT_AVAILABLE. This yields a huge blind spot into the real meaning of NOTE_NOT_AVAILABLE.

A naive interpretation would simply be "your buy was too slow." As a simple example, a List request takes a fraction of a second, and a buy request takes one or more seconds on a regular basis. This means that while a buy request is being processed by the LC backend, there are MULTIPLE other rounds of "lists" that other market buyers have gone through. Likewise, when I see the List come up, there may be multiple other people who have noticed the opportunity and are in the process of a buy request.

But I'm not fully convinced that is what is happening. The other explanation for what is happening is that I make a buy request, but the system that handles the buy requests simply hasn't received the information that the note has been put up for sale (aka, the buy is TOO fast).

I would HOPE that the note no longer being available would yield the "NOTE_DATA_STALE" state, but have no evidence on why that one shows up. Does anyone have some more insight into what the NOTE_NOT_AVAILABLE status means, or if there's a better way to distinguish between "buying too fast" and "buying too slow"?
Foliofn - LC / LC Bot Performance Info
« on: April 05, 2019, 11:00:00 PM »
I started running a bot to buy secondary market opportunities. One thing that was frustrating when starting out was not having other bots to compare to. So, here's some info on my bot's performance over the last few weeks.

The TTFB for list and buy request are very interesting recently as there seem to have been some changes on LC's side. The list and buy TTFB 50%, 95%, and 99% stats per day are captured in this chart as nanoseconds (1G is 1 sec):

The number of notes the bot rejects per day are also captured:

Most of these rejections are because the notes are not seasoned enough. The bot is pretty fast, but it is not fast enough and I don't really think I can fix it.

Here you can see the result of "buy" attempts by qty of notes bucketed on 2 day intervals. Orange is insufficient cash (lots of high priced notes popped at once), blue is a successful attempt, and that pink/purple color is the bot being too "slow" (note not available). I think the later is because a "list" request takes like 100~200ms and a "buy" request takes multiple times longer. Another way to look at this is that while my "buy" request is processing, 2~5 other rounds of people's "list" request has completed and they are competing for the same note. These notes are unique opportunities, a second priced auction system would be more suited for such a market... but nothing I can do there.

So I loose a lot of buy request races. And even of the ones that show up as a successful buy request end up being cancelled due to payment processing (at least 50%). Something Fred93 has posted about many times in the past.

Anyways, just posting up some numbers for anyone else out there to compare against.