P2P Lending / NFT Lending Forum

Andy,
Yes, you reoplied to me months ago, but I finally decided to wind down my LC investments and not reinvest. Instead I am slowly moving my money out of LC and into Fidelity funds.

https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=3965.msg37353#msg37353">Quote"> from: andy3109 on August 26, 2016, 10:21:11 PM

For the past couple of months, I have not been buying new loans, and instead I am moving money out of Lending Club and over to Fidelity.
My returns have dropped, and write offs have been increasing. In 4 years, as loans mature, I will have moved all my money out of LC.  I will have made money, but not as much as I would have liked.

Here is more confirmation of the vaidity of my devcision to migrate out of LC.

http://seekingalpha.com/news/3232417-lendingclub-loss-rates-picking-compass-point?app=1&dr=1&uprof=45&utoken=b62127f07c7665796cfda9e0cbac8e9b707e3d77#email_link" class="bbc_link" target="_blank">http://seekingalpha.com/news/3232417-lendingclub-loss-rates-picking-compass-point?app=1&dr=1&uprof=45&utoken=b62127f07c7665796cfda9e0cbac8e9b707e3d77#email_link

I have been doing well with Fidelity using the advice I get on http://www.fmandi.com" class="bbc_link" target="_blank">www.fmandi.com

RawRaw,

Who is leaving the mutual fund at inopportune times? The managers of the fund or investors like us?
I measure all my investments against what I could get if I just left my money in an S&P 500 linked fund. 

At the moment (actually, for the past 10 years) my Fidelity investments have been earning me more, way more, than the 4-5% I am getting from LC right now.

I am convinced that if I understood the statistical tool of factor analysis, I could use it to choose LC loans more effectively.


https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=3551.msg38772#msg38772">Quote"> from: rawraw on November 28, 2016, 10:20:41 AM

I have lost as much money to defaults as I have made in Lending Club.
I am still ahead and have made money, but I would make more money if I shifted my money to Fidelity and polaced it in a DJ linked fund.
Slowly, I am moving my funds out, not reinvesting.

I think the proper investment goal should always be to meet or better the Dow.
You can always put your money into a DJ fund and match the market. The goal should be to beat the market.

https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=4159.msg38442#msg88888888Quote"> from: jonah on November 06, 2016, 09:49:19 AM

I have changed my expectations for my LC investments from 9% to 7% to anything between 6-7%

At least we are still making money.

https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=4021.msg36965#msg88888888Quote"> from: SLCPaladin on August 03, 2016, 12:31:04 PM

bdonovan,

Now you have to find out where those guys go for lunch, and casually sit at a table near them and listen carefully!  https://forum.lendacademy.com/Smileys/default/wink.gif" alt=";)" title="Wink" class="smiley" />

https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=4012.msg36949#msg88888888Quote"> from: Cody0022 on August 02, 2016, 09:15:29 AM

bdonovan's questions which started this thread are terribly interesting!

The implied question in his post is how to increase the probability that a borrower will pay back a loans.
Another way to put it is, how to reduce defaults.

The better you can predict default rate, the better returns.
I do not know how interest rates are determined for an individual. I suppose that FICO is a primary variable used in that formula. I assume that FICO is a good predcitor of financial reliability-risk.

I suppose if you did a deep interview, a full psychological assessment, and took one of the borrower's children as a hostage, you could increase probability of repayment. I suppose that more in depth data collection would cost more.  There has got to be some set of data which are the best predictors of probability of default. I guess those variables could be determined using factor analysis.

Since any statistical prediction only has a particular margin of error, the more loans the less the variance.
This all and bdonovan's question, makes me want to learn more about the science and math of making loans.
I had taken stats in grad school, but I just don't remember enough to solve this problem, now.
I do wonder if LC gathers enough data and provides the data to us for us to be able to improve the prediction of default rates.

https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=3365.msg36869#msg88888888Quote"> from: rubicon on July 27, 2016, 10:12:15 AM

For me, the good news is that loads of G, F and E rated notes are returning.

As far as Folio goes, immediately after a note gets issued, I list in on Folio at between a 5% to 8% markup.
I don't seriously expect it be bought, but I figure, that if I can get even one person to buy a 27% loan at 5-8% within the first couple of months, and then I take that money and buy another loan, I have profited right away.

https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=4001.msg36748#msg88888888Quote"> from: Fred93 on July 18, 2016, 06:47:31 PM

Did you ever find an interesting topic for your thesis?

What was your major?  A thesis for behavioral economics would ask a different question than a thesis for finance.