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Messages - brycemason

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BlueVestment / Speed of BV auto-invest
« on: July 31, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
P2P-P actually pushes the publications to BV as soon as they are ready.
P2P-Picks / Performance of newer P2P-Picks models
« on: July 18, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
I'm revamping my website soon, but there is little point to having backtested results now that I and many other have actuals. I'm going to deprecate those old studies.
P2P-Picks / BlueVestment question
« on: July 13, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
The only fidelity is 5/10/25. Setting it at 7 won't do anything special; it will be the same as 5.
BlueVestment / P2P Picks through BlueVestment
« on: July 07, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
It was shut down for maybe 10-15 days. If you were still getting loans it was because you had other filters and the p2p-p filters just weren't doing anything.
P2P-Picks / Prosper Picks Active
« on: June 28, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
P2P-Picks added a credit model for Prosper with two publications:

  • Profit Maximizer (Top 15%) -- B, C, D, and E loans
  • Loss Minimizer (Top 15%) -- AA and A loans

We elected not to publish a "Top" grading scale for Prosper until such time as the marketplace's fractional loan volume supports that decision. Both credit models pick a handful of loans each release.

These publications are available exclusively via our API (recall that the web interface for our publications is going away in very short order). We are actively pursuing third-party order management systems to integrate with our API for Prosper and LendingClub.

Buying on Prosper is a little different than LendingClub. Prosper releases fractional loans slowly over a 1-hour period on the following scheduled starting times (most loans come within the first few minutes of the hour). Our systems continuously download the listings, score them, and update our API. PMax picks appear to move quickly (with a number of 10% chunks being bought by institutions). LMin picks stick around much longer, although some 10% chunks are being purchased.

Monday - Friday: 9am and 5pm
Saturday - Sunday: 12pm

I am building a portfolio using the Loss Minimizer publication. Today I bought my first loan fraction.

P2P-Picks / LendingClub Picks Paused Pending API Changes
« on: June 19, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
In mid-June, LendingClub made some changes such that users of its website received access to new loans substantially more quickly than users of its API. As P2P-Picks is reliant on the API to automate its processes, this information gap has caused pick volume to decline precipitously. Thus, we are suspending the picking process until LendingClub has made improvements that enable us to resume our practices.
P2P-Picks / Web Picks Going Away
« on: June 17, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
LendingClub loans are getting funded within seconds and P2P-Picks subscribers who access our picks using the web page more often than not experience too many delays to have a good user experience. So, over the coming weeks, we will be deprecating the web publication front end and all of our picks will be available exclusively through our API. This will reduce costs on our end (from serving up so many web pages as user madly refresh pages trying to find the exact second picks are published) and it will also be faster and allow for more automation. Currently we have a partnership with BlueVestment to serve up our picks and are seeking additional partnerships with Nickel Steamroller, Orchard, NoteX360, and other private developers. If you would like to make a DIY solution, please inquire.
Investors - LC / Loan Information Asymmetrical Timing
« on: June 15, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
Fred, that's where I said I wasn't going to go in my original post. But that's my thought, too. Only one way to tell...find a few people with PRIME, identify the loans bought into, and compare with lists of loans that never made it to my archived CSVs. I really hope that isn't happening, because it would be an implicit acknowledgement that there's a "best" set of loans, something they've vociferously argued against the entire time.
Investors - LC / Loan Information Asymmetrical Timing
« on: June 14, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
I'm sure the third party sites appreciate the acknowledgement of value added, but let's keep it on topic. It is more likely that this was a change that wasn't so well thought out and had unintended consequences.

I sent the observations to LC (one of the gentlemen in the investor services dept.) and haven't yet heard a reply beyond acknowledgement of receipt and forwarding. But, it is the weekend. Hopefully we can see equal treatment across all info feeds in the near future.
Investors - LC / Loan Information Asymmetrical Timing
« on: June 13, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
Debated posting this, but so many ramifications I felt it best to do so. Original post in my forum. Reported here for broad applicability. The question has been why my systems (and I imagine those of many) have been less capable of doing business since the latest LC change. I detail the change and consequences below.

The issue is that P2P-Picks relies on LC providing its loan application data via the CSV or API, and that these are no longer the most timely way to get loan application data. It is affecting me personally and all of my clients, too, and there isn't much I can do about it except complain to LC, which I have done.

It used to be that when you clicked the link to get the CSV, LC would instruct its systems to generate a fresh CSV based on the loan applications that were available at that very moment. This, I imagine, was expensive for them when thousands of people were clicking at the magic hours. Hence why we saw rate limiters in place last November. In the last few days, they moved to a model of linking to a static CSV available for download that is updated for freshness just once every minute. While this relieves the stress off their servers, it has had some unintended (or perhaps intended) consequences.

Here is the rub. LC releases the loans onto their platform around 30-40 second after the hour. The loans are available to website users a full 20-30 seconds before they ever even appear in the CSV. The API has always been out of date a number of seconds, just like the CSV is now. Now, the absolute fastest way to get loan application data is to use the website interactively via their filter processes (or to screen scrape for automation). This puts all of us who want to do active loan selection in a position of either sitting at our terminals every release twitching like some kid playing a video game or breaking the rules (even more than we already have to do) and resorting to screen scraping loan data off the website in order to automate things. Of course, the web pages don't even have a majority of the credit variables anyway, so this may be of limited value.

I have witnessed this occur on both the fractional and whole loan side. Reliably, at 30 after the hour, new loans will appear. Within a few seconds, the "good stuff" (to the extent you wish to believe in such a concept) is either purchased outright (in the whole loan market) or is mostly already full (on the fractional side) by the time the other two loan data retrieval methods are updated. Here is an example from 6pm a couple nights ago to illustrate:

5:55:00 - Initial count: 31 whole loans on platform
6:00:05 - Unused whole loans expire (12 hour rule): 19 whole loans on the platform
6:00:30 - 170 new whole loans added to platform (as viewed from the webpage) - total inventory = 189
6:00:45 - 24 whole loans disappear off the platform - total inventory = 165
6:01:00 - browseNotes.csv and LoansBrowseLoans update with just 165 whole loans in them

Why would LC do this? I don't want to go into pet theories, even though I have some, before allowing LC a chance to respond. And to be clear LC is absolutely still providing an even playing field. Same rules for everyone. It's just that this change has benefitted a certain type of user (the twitching kid or the scraper).

My recommendation is to synch the timing of all forms of loan application data, website, CSV, and API. If the Royal Bank of Canada wrote Thor to synchronize orders across multiple stock exchanges, I'm pretty sure this is a feasible request.

BlueVestment / Auto Invest not working?
« on: June 10, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
Sorry guys, I had some issues the last few days. We have been downsizing our web server getting ready to migrate away from manual picks (to save a few bucks on hosting). When we rebooted the system we forgot to change a hostname in our scripts and missed a few loads of applications. It worked as expected a couple days, and now today LC deprecated the old method of getting new loan applications. May be more trouble in the next day but will have it sorted soon enough. The good news for you is that I can't make any money unless I fix it, so it'll be fixed ;)
Woo woo. I feel special:

Guessing this just means I have whole loan access, which anyone can get.
Investors - LC / Regression Trees
« on: June 05, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
It can work well, but I'm not a fan. I prefer to understand the reasons why we see relationships, and the computer finding the best way to slide down regression trees / random forests like a game of Plinko on the Price is Right just doesn't satisfy my curiosity. There are many ways to skin a cat.
Investors - LC /
« on: May 31, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
This explains it. My cash is building up because I'm not making many picks due to this bug.
Investors - LC / No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« on: May 14, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
Simple definition of outlier is exceeding 3 sigma from mean. That account is. But I don't necessarily trust the data. That is quite unlikely, but rare events do happen.
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