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Messages - brycemason

#106
This is what I proposed a while back. Expect a ton of issued notes tomorrow and Friday.
#107
If you're frustrated with LCs application approval time and how long your money is tied up, steer clear of Mosaic! I swear these companies have a strategy to make extra money on the float. Just make funding the last step, ffs.

From the Mosaic prospectus:

Quote
#108
Investors - LC / Finally had my first defaut—
July 22, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
LC will accept payments on charged off loans. In early 2013 I saw a loan from 2007 become "Fully Paid" from "Charged Off."
#109
Early payoff is correlated with Grade. So, if you go lower risk, it happens more often. My current portfolio is in the mid grades, B-D, and in the last 18 months, about 10% of my loans have paid off early (varying lengths of time, obviously).
#110
Investors - LC /
July 18, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
Modest revolving balance. 5 year loan. Relatively lower interest rate (not as high a chance for a big win).
#111
Go into the "Notes" section, choose "all" from the drop down box on how many loans to display, and then sort by status and find them.
#112
P2P-Picks / Personal Portfolio Returns
July 09, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
Sharing my portfolio returns is something that I intended to do for quite some time, but I wanted to wait to season it for a good while. Now that I'm over the "hump" of 10 months on average, I thought it time to share.

Setup

The following statistics are based a portfolio that I created in January 2012 exclusively using the P2P-Picks Profit Maximizer. The following schedule describes my deposits:

8 Jan 2012 - $5,000
22 Mar 2012 - $5,000
1 Jun 2012 - $5,000
13 Jun 2012 - $20,000

This portfolio is not traded on the secondary market. It attempts to be the optimal buy and hold strategy from newly issued LendingClub loans. All payments have been reinvested into the portfolio.

Seasoning

The attached graphic summarizes the age of Issued, Current, and Late notes in my portfolio. The unweighted average age of the loans in the portfolio is 295 days. The average age weighted by remaining principal is 278 days. The months with the most notes are now well past months 6-10, which have the highest percentage of charge-offs.

Performance

Currently LendingClub reports my NAR at 12.0%.

An XIRR calculation on my current balance and the cash deposit dates is 11.1%. This, however, also measures my somewhat slow deployment of that $20,000 deposit, and is biased below the true performance of the strategy. Spreading out that $20,000 deposit into 4 x $5,000 deposits each a couple weeks apart bumps up the XIRR to 11.5%.

Looking toward the future, I expect the NAR to bounce between 11.7% and 12.3% as the portfolio continues to push over the 10-month hump and experiences relatively fewer charge offs (compared to the last 3 months). The XIRR should also push closer and closer to the NAR as (a) the effects of cash drag decrease through automated investing and (b) the $20,000 deposit cash drag effect is diluted over time. This is precisely where I expected to be given my backtesting. You can see the backtesting in Peter's article (look where the curve meets the imaginary vertical line at the Top 10% policy). http://www.lendacademy.com/p2p-picks-hedge-fund-style-p2p-investing/" class="bbc_link" target="_blank">http://www.lendacademy.com/p2p-picks-hedge-fund-style-p2p-investing/

My active portfolio has 959 Issued and Current notes, 4 Late 16-30s, and 12 Late 31-120s, and 0 In Default. There are also 101 Fully Paid loans and 25 Charged Off loans that are no longer part of the active portfolio. I feel this is a solid distressed note performance given the portfolio size.




[attachment deleted by admin]
#113
Lowering rates attracts more borrowers, which is probably their chief concern at the moment.
#114
Probably most people know, but I'm a college administrator. I do all the statistics and some policy analysis for a medium sized university in Los Angeles. Before my 8 years in college administration, I was at the RAND Corp. for 5 years as a doctoral fellow.
#116
Investors - LC / Feeling Irritable!
May 16, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
Cost of doing business. Like Don Henley says, "Get over it!" Just buy a new loan and be happy the principal is back. I think there has been only 1 loan in 1000 so far that Paid in Full but lost me money (1 cent).
#117
The negatives I see are a couple inquiries, high utilization, and a giant literacy problem. That's hardly every column, but I doubt I would have bitten if I saw those replies.

I once tested for religious inference on charge off. Yeah, let's not go there.
#118
Yup, array formulas are badass. Fortunately, XIRR is one of the formulas that plays nicely with arrays.
#119
Suggestions / New administrator
May 03, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
Excellent! Peter needed some help to fork threads and move them when appropriate. Luckily, this is a pretty civil board.
#120
Investors - LC / Business Lending Coming?
April 28, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
I recently invested in the small business credit segment (not through LendingClub). When I saw the approach of how the small businesses were vetted, the repayment method, and the effective interest rates, I was impressed. I think small businesses need access to credit and are willing to pay good returns not to disrupt their business. If done right LendingClub could have a good additional segment.