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Messages - jrl

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Investors - LC / hardship fields in spreadsheet wrong
« on: May 07, 2020, 11:00:00 PM »
Just so you know, I noticed the issue (but not in the spreadsheet) in early April, so it's been like this for over a month now:,21636.msg61755.html#msg61755

Initially, they did show up as IGP, then they got converted to "Deferred" (I guess) as the borrowers called in and asked for it.

Since last month I can confirm that my month over month earnings from the account that I'm winding down have went from around 6-8% yearly to negative 2%. Though because the notes are listed as "current" my ANAR has gone up by around 0.2 percentage points, and my implied APR (based on LC's adjustment) has gone up 3 percentage points, from 8% APR to 11%.

My other account has shown even "better" numbers, due to purely Folio reinvestment since I lost primary market access in September. (It's still turning a profit.)

In both accounts I'm seeing notes get converted from IGP and late to current ("deferred") just about every day. Though some of these accounts have been making payments before the end of the deferral term.

My guess is that they're attempting to hide this from retail. My expectation is around 3-6 months of near break-even (for me) returns, then a higher than normal amount of late notes converting into charge-offs around year-end before a return to normal returns (for these older notes) in the new year. I would expect just like in other hard times that the new notes being issued in the next few months will have much better returns than we've seen in the past few years.
The credit scores aren't updating. I've previously brought this issue up with LC and they told me they now update bi-monthly.

Visual representation of the issue: The charts are two different random notes, one from my account, and one listed on folio.

Well, it's been two months and one week since the last update, and they still haven't updated.

So I emailed LC about this on Tuesday, and they responded "The credit scores should update in the next two days." on Wednesday. I have asked again this evening and still haven't received a response.

I think they're not taking this issue seriously because nobody else is noticing, because none of the automated systems would pick it up. The only values shown on the SecondayMarketAllNotes file are "CreditScoreTrend" and "FICO End Range" but if you look at the notes_ext or traded_notes_ext files there's a value labeled last_credit_pull_d which is the date the last credit score was pulled/updated.

When you think about it, every single note on folio currently shows a "credit score trend" that ends two months ago, which previously updated in the middle of every month. Any note could literally have went from a prime credit score to an extremely high risk score last month, or even the month before, and would still be listed with a flat or up trend. Obviously this problem gets exponentially worse the longer it persists.

I understand many here are trying to liquidate their accounts, and I would LOVE to buy your notes (that meet my criteria), but until the scores update I'm reluctant to buy a single note!

I'm currently sitting here with 15% of my account in cash because of this, hoping more people will raise this issue. It's frustrating.
Looks like LC has been busy!

1st change: A notice about Hardship Payments was added to the corresponding notes:

Investors - LC / LC is ending whole-loan note sales next week
« on: January 24, 2020, 12:00:00 AM »
I suspect the volume on the retail market will be kept just under the demand on the market. If you go around buying up 50% of every loan that hits the market, I suspect they'll issue more fractional notes to offset that. Like it is currently, there's always a few notes available, they just usually don't meet our criteria.

I suspect LC has some kind of criteria that looks at cash balances and investor behavior in order to try and create demand for these less-than-desirable (to a majority of the retail market) notes. IMO their algorithms appear to be garbage to us, but they're probably behaving as expected from LC.
NSR Invest / NSR Invest has been down for over 24 hours now.
« on: January 23, 2020, 12:00:00 AM »
Running any filters, back-testing, portfolio analysis, etc. on either the primary or secondary market, the platform times out. It pops up "504 Gateway Time-out The server didn't respond in time." and "Unable to process your request at this time. Please try again." Same problem with two different computers on two different ISPs.

The "NSR team" seems to be part-time or outsourced. The chat window now says "usually responds in a day." It used to say either "Active Now" or something like "Back tomorrow." Lately it's more like a week on average for me.

Which is terrible, because it seems to be having issues every month or so.

Now I just looked and it says "7:48 pm in Moscow, Russia" under the name "Alex" and "Not seen yet" under my message.. Well, I sent him a message 23 hours ago. If it's night time there, that means he's gone the whole business day without seeing it.

Then under prior conversations, it says that "Alex" is "Active", "Jagdai" "Michael" and "Zach" are "Away", but in New York. (Michael in Thiensville, US)

It's very frustrating the way NSR's support is set up. Looking back at previous conversations, I have one notifying them the site was down that day, over 5 weeks old with no response. In September it took 8 days to get a response. In July 2019 and April 2018 it was next day. February 2018 it took 4 days. March 2017 it was 12 hours. September 2016 it was 10 minutes.

Maybe I should try PeerCube?
« on: January 20, 2020, 12:00:00 AM »
Strange, I've only seen the "Cancelled, Payment Processing" on my end, though I don't use the API. I have eliminated most of those by adding a "days since last payment" parameter of less than 30 to my filters.

I buy my notes manually from filters on NSR. Which is basically just API data with an interface.

I did have a few occasions where a note failed, but in the few cases (so far) it was because the price changed before I completed the order. I just look for the note again and usually find it with a lower price.

If I had to guess, "NOTE_NOT_AVAILABLE" probably means someone already bought the note (or added it to an order). "NOTE_DATA_STALE" probably means that the price has changed, so you need to find the new order_id.

Other than that, I would imagine that high-quality in-demand notes involve a bit of a speed game, just like on the primary platform. Might have to get like HFT traders and run your bots as geographically close to LC's servers as possible. (With the same ISP as well, preferably in the same colocation center)
Foliofn - LC / Stale Credit Scores.
« on: January 08, 2020, 12:00:00 AM »
Usually the credit scores of borrowers update mid-month, but i've recently found out that around 90% of my current/IGP/Late notes have had their last credit pull on or before November 14th.

It's kinda hard to price notes with stale credit scores, so this is a major issue.

I also have 15 notes that haven't updated since August, with 2 that last updated in 2018, and 2 in 2017!

Also, the more recent credit pulls don't show up on the individual note's "credit score change graph" and are noticable on the NSR plaform with things like "UP (-25)" or "DOWN (10)". The only place I see these numbers is the "Download All - Extended" and "Download Details - All Traded Notes" CSV files accessed from the notes page (on LC site).

I called LC earlier today, and their respone was that "nobody else has brought this up," "can I put you on hold for a few while I ask the team," ("sure," few minutes later,) "maybe the updates are delayed from when they're pulled" and "we'll look into it."

I'm just wondering if this is something that anyone else has noticed or heard of happening before.

I hope it's not a sign of a bigger issue, like trying to save money by delaying credit pulls.
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