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Messages - sensij

[1] 2
BlueVestment / Bluevestment Down Again
« on: March 20, 2018, 11:00:00 PM »

It looks like the service has been discontinued.  Anyone have another favorite that will automatically purchase notes?
Investors - LC / Dear LC
« on: November 16, 2017, 12:00:00 AM »
For what its worth, here is an update of the a chart @Fred93 has presented before (and is mentioning in the post just above this one, from the downloadable chargeoffs spreadsheet), suggesting 2016 Q2 and Q3 are the worst and some improvement since then, although there is some grade dependency.

It look like 2012 Q4 was that last *great* time to be an investor in the higher risk grades.  I didn't plot earlier than that because volume was so thin (only 432 notes in 2011 Q4, grades D-G, for example, increasing to 753 in 2012 Q1)
BlueVestment /
« on: November 08, 2017, 12:00:00 AM »

What kind of filter changes are you imagining?  Whether LC was still offering those grades or not, I guess I would hope that BV is following results well enough to have detected that returns for those grades were falling, and start reducing their weight (20% of my BP Aggressive account is F&G), but I also hope that algorithm changes are thoroughly tested and validated, which might introduce some lag time to react to changes in loan quality of each grade.
Investors - LC / Worst Month Yet
« on: November 06, 2017, 12:00:00 AM »
I'm trying to put these thread updates into context.  We know there is a *account* performance curve that bottoms out at around 15 mo, based on the weighted average age of the holdings within the account.  We know that an account with continuous re-investment of note payments (and little contribution of new funds) should eventually stabilize at a weighted age of around 15 mo, if heavily skewed towards 36 mo notes.  The curves that LC presents are not weighted by account *size*, however...  one hypothesis is that the performance distribution of accounts with a weighted age out 20-30 months are getting lifted by accounts skewed towards 60 mo notes that are still in re-investment, while masking the lower returns of smaller accounts that are winding down.

Since re-investment has been stopped, it seems like this thread is essentially presenting the play-by-play that feeds "performance by vintage" charts like what @Fred93 had posted in a few threads, for example:,4113.msg40832.html#msg40832.

Has anyone with a more agile feel for these numbers gotten a sense of whether these results are basically consistent with what we'd expect for an account that is winding down (perhaps adjusted for the now-known poor quality of the last vintage purchased in this account)?  It may not drive my decision-making, but I'd like to refine my expectations of what the eventual wind-down period will look like, and how long the account needs to exist in the re-investment state to cover the wind down costs and still meet my goals.

Investors - LC / Selling Houston loans
« on: September 01, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
LendingClub is not ignoring the potential impact, just got the email below.

My exposure to the zip codes in the first post:
Grades A-C: $4138 of $89,160 (108 notes, 4 of those IGP)
Grades C-G: $1600 of $37,353 (55 notes, 3 of those late + 1 charged off)

Investors - LC / 5 Key Things to Know About Investing at LendingClub
« on: August 14, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
I received it... doesn't look especially targeted, to me.

Edit:  For context, I'm ~4 mo into my Lending Club experience, and fully invested / re-investing in two IRA accounts.
BlueVestment / BlueVestment Actual Returns
« on: July 31, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
Would it be worthwhile to post actual returns from my Lending Club accounts with note selection performed by BlueVestment?  Would any BlueVestment representatives active in this forum object to me sharing these results?

I have two accounts...  a Traditional IRA (using BP Moderate) and a Roth IRA (using BP aggressive).  Each account has over 1000 notes, which should give a decent sample size to judge by.

The following are relatively easily to pull out.  Are there more stats that would help convey the status/performance of these accounts?

Traditional IRA stats, using the BP Moderate filter:
ANAR: 7.99%
WAIR: 10.98%
Weighted average age: 4.0 mo.
Number of notes: 1965
A: 18.3%
B: 47.1%
C: 34.6%
36 month: 91.6%
60 month: 8.4%
Principal: 89,847.81
IGP: 10 - 718.08
16-30: 4 - 97.03
31-120: 7 - 516.36
Fully paid: 52 - 26.11
Adjusted principal: 89,218.30
Adjusted account value: 89,233.09

Roth IRA stats, using the BP Aggressive filter:
ANAR: 14.71%
WAIR: 23.19%
Weighted average age: 3.5 mo.
Number of notes: 1288
C: 0.1%
D: 37.1%
E: 42.9%
F: 13.3%
G: 6.6%
36 month: 80.8%
60 month: 19.2%
Principal: 35,814.74
IGP: 21 - 597.33
16-30: 7 - 282.50
31-120: 17 - 516.41
Fully paid: 72 - 24.25
Adjusted principal: 35,115.23
Adjusted account value: 35,126.49
BlueVestment / Testing Filter in Bluevestment
« on: April 24, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
I'm not sure it helps your backtesting much, but I can say that BP aggressive has purchased 752 notes for me from March 2 through today, with no additional filtering, and not cash limited at any point during that time.

I moved my IRA to Lending Club this year.  I consider the bonus they offered to just be a reimbursement of the costs that will eventually be incurred to close the account.  I'm glad you've shared your painful experience though, it helps me feel prepared.
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