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Messages - mikedave

#1
Investors - LC / IPO Eve. IPO Changed to $15 a share!
December 09, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Based on 2013 financials I calculate the new P/E ratio to be about 740.   This is pricing in an incredible amount of growth.  They would have to grow revenue by ~30X to hit a reasonable PE ratio so 7mil x 30= 210mil  can they do this in a reasonable time frame?  If they were to double revenue every year (something they have badly failed at this year so far) if would take 5-6years growth to make the current valuation reasonable.

Still deciding weather I should take the shares, if I do it will be looking for a quick pop, definitely getting out way before the insiders shares unlock.  This is pure gambling.



#2
Investors - LC / wave of grace notes
May 24, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
These things do seem to come in waves.  If you have ever worked in retail you've see the same effect. Nothing... nothing ... nothing... 20 customers all at once.  I'm sure there are some deep statistical theory to explain it.  I try not to read too much into the bad patches, or the good ones either for that matter, but human nature looks for patterns where there aren't necessarily any.
#3
That person is probably just selling his late notes
#4
Investors - LC / wave of grace notes
May 10, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
I got about 10 grace notes this weekend, is it just my bad luck or is LC slow to process payments or something?
#5
Investors - LC / Value of previously late notes
April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
I can offer one data point.  I list all my now current IGP and late notes at 0% markup.  They rarely sell at this markup, I might sell one per month out of about 30 notes.  If you have a bunch of notes to dump in a hurry you will have to offer a discount.
#6
Investors - LC / Give up some numbers.
April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM

In Funding   31
Issued & Current   1,022
In Grace Period   3
Fully Paid   38   
Late 16 - 30 Days   1
Late 31 - 120 Days   6
Default   0
Charged Off 0
Ave age 6mo

From Interest Radar
Return over deposits:   8.08%
IRR:   14.85%

A
B   48   
C   731   
D   227   
E   92   
F   2   
G   1   
Sum   1,101   

This is a mix of new notes purchased mainly using IR filters (~70%), and notes purchased on Folio (~30%) I sell quite a few notes of Folio also
#7
Investors - LC / Taxes - a sanity check
March 09, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Do I treat losses from selling bad loans on Folio different that losses sustained for charge offs?