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Messages - SeattleSun

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Investors - LC /
« on: March 09, 2017, 12:00:00 AM »
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Wow, rare to see a discussion of I-Bonds IMO most times I bring them up I just get blank stares.

Back in the "good old days" me and the Mrs bought our annual limit of $30,000 per SSN and have the 2001 $60k tranche with a fixed component of 3.0%, the 2003 $60k tranche has a fixed component of 1.1% and the 2005 $60k tranche has a fixed component of 1.0%  And yes they are so old they are "paper bonds". 

Add to that the current semi-annual inflation rate (CPI-U) 1.38%  and you get a yield of : 2001 +5.20%, 2003 +3.35% and 2005 +3.17% and all is "tax deffered" so far.  Sometimes I lament having those three plus % returns on those 2003 and 2005 returns so it was comforting to see AnilG say, "No investment will come close to offering risk-adjusted return of those bonds".  I think "risk adjusted return" must be the key words there.

Since I do this investing stuff as a "hobby" maybe one of you "smart finance guys" would tell me what you think about my I-Bond returns to date. Note the return gets adjusted every six months so I am just quoting the interest earned over the time I have held the I-Bonds.

1)  An Oct 2001  $10,000 I-Bond have  earned interest of $11,872 as of 1/1/17 - 15 years + 3 Months or 183 months.  Good, bad or average investment. 

One of my reference is the gold bullion I bought in the fall of 2001 at $299/oz and is up 400% as today's close at $1,200 an ounce. 

2)  A July 2003  $10,000 I-Bonds has earned interest of $5,660 as of 1/1/17.

3)  A Nov 2005 $10,000 I-Bonds has earned interest of $4,202 as of 1/1/17.

SOMETIMES I FEEL I OVER PAID FOR HAVING THE US GOVERNMENT INFLATION PROOF  $180,000 OF MY CASH STASH.

When I did my retirement planning in 2005 I ran senerios at 4%, 6%, 8%, 10% and 12% inflation.   LOL

That's what living through the 1970's does to your mind!



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More on the topic of this thread I decided to stop investing in P2P (Propser)in June of 2016 since I had an investment opportunity that did in fact have a 21% return last year.  Priority day trading strategy, so sorry can't tell.   High "pucker factor" as one might imagine.

I have just been letting my P2P account "decay" naturally and harvest the cash quarterly. So far have withdrawn $38k

The family has two accounts one yielding 10.1% and mine yielding 9.1%

Edit: after reading this full thread, note that the two account are "old" and full of 36 month loans.

All "Debt Consolidation"
A 12%
B 48%
C 28%
Cash 12% which I will pull out at the end of March

So maybe I got "lucky" being "conservative" with my "self directed" selection criteria.


SeattleSun



from: AnilG on February 24, 2017, 07:30:31 PM
4
Investors - LC / Worst Month Yet
« on: August 11, 2016, 11:00:00 PM »
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There is not enough time in the day and unfortunately keeping up with this forum is what gets missed.  My bad.

Will update my spreadsheet this weekend and post BUT

Just took a peak at my account which has been naturally unwinding since 1 June and the LATE numbers jumped out at me.

In June had 49 loans late out of 1250 or 3.92%

Now have 72 loans out of 1150 or 6.26%, many of these people do have a history of paying late but so far they has paid.

A fifty percent increase, 

SHOULD I BE CONCERNED OR IS THIS TYPICAL VARIATION?

TIA
5
Investors - LC / My Decaying Star .......
« on: June 25, 2016, 11:00:00 PM »
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For totally personal reasons I have to unwind my 1200 active loan portfolio of mostly 3 year $100 dollar loans.

So far I have chosen to just let them run off.

At the end of this month (June 16) I will have about $10,000 to withdrawal.  More than I would have guessed.

I am trying to get an idea of what this decay will look like going forward.

Anyone done this before or can see the future. 

Is there a better way to do this?   Suggestions welcome   :)

I have a filo account but don't want to sell a significant portfolio at a discount, just stubborn.

TIA

Its a Prosper account but that shouldn't really matter in regards to this question.
6
Investors - LC / Who is "kind-bid-healer" who buys all these .....
« on: June 25, 2016, 11:00:00 PM »

(Yes I know this is the LC Investor thread but it gets about 10X the views as the Prosper one)

...these defaulted Prosper loans? 

"kind-bid-healer" has bought every one (60) of my defaulted Prosper loans for 11 cents on the dollar.

So besides "who" how about "what" is the strategy with doing that.

Just curious if anyone knows, TIA
7
Investors - P / Texas Investor
« on: June 25, 2016, 11:00:00 PM »
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Lending Club is public company (at least for now) and is regulated nationally by the SEC and I think it is called the "Blue Sky Rule" that none of the 50 states can thus forbid them to NOT do business in their state.

Prosper is a private company and thus regulated state-by-state so any state can deny it a business permit. And the Texas regulators still have a bad taste in their mouth after being the epicenter of the Saving and Loans Crisis of the early 1980s.  So they are very risk adverse.

Or something like that.
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Investors - P / Who is "kind-bid-healer" who buys all these .....
« on: June 25, 2016, 11:00:00 PM »
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...these defaulted Prosper loans?

Just curious if anyone knows, TIA
9
Investors - LC / Worst Month Yet
« on: June 06, 2016, 11:00:00 PM »
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May charge offs were 50% and the long run remained 44%.

Prosper only lender since 2012 with 1300 active loans.
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Investors - LC / liquidation strategy on folio
« on: May 31, 2016, 11:00:00 PM »
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OK stand by for a dumb question.

I was looking at selling out my Prosper notes as I now have an opportunity that just beta tested at 1/2% per week.

I have 1291 notes and started in 2012 most are $100 notes.

Dec-13-2012   B   740-759      Current   60   19   $42.72   18.82%
Feb-04-2013   B   800-819      Current   60   21   $45.60   17.47%

1) haven't LC/prosper lending rates been falling since these notes were issued,
2) maybe these FICO have gone up since being issues, but 700 was my floor to lend to.

Q.  Should stuff like this be easy to sell?

TIA

Clueless in Seattle.
12
Investors - LC / Worst Month Yet
« on: February 17, 2016, 12:00:00 AM »

Just got this e-mail from Prosper.  Sorry the tables in the e-mail wouldn't copy.  Maybe somebody else can post them?

QUOTE
Effective today, Prosper has increased its estimated loss rates and the price charged for risk on the loans originated through the platform. We believe this move ensures that our borrower payment dependent note and whole loan products remain competitive for our investors in the current turbulent market environment that we have witnessed since the beginning of 2016. Since August of 2015, Prosper has been proactively raising the estimated loss rates and the price for risk in the loan products originated through the platform. We believe that these proactive moves will ensure that we continue to offer superior products to our investors.

Below, please find the new pricing table and the estimated portfolio impact of the changes (changes are based on a simulation of the new policies on January booked loans and actual portfolio composition will vary depending on how new applicants respond to offers and the relative marketing mix going forward vs. January):

Estimated Aggregate Impact to Prosper Portfolio of Loss and Price Changes:
Sorry Table Wouldn't Copy

Proposed Pricing Modifications for the Week of 2‌/15:
Sorry Table Wouldn't Copy
UNQUOTE
14
Investors - P / Prosper Files 10-K for 2013
« on: May 04, 2014, 11:00:00 PM »
On the eve of the LendIt Conference Prosper has announced their largest investment round ever. They have closed on a $70 million round from Francisco Partners, Institutional Venture Partners and Phenomen Ventures.

This monster round comes on the heels of Prosper crossing $100 million in loans issued in April and the $1 billon milestone just one month ago. It has clearly been a good year for Prosper so far.
15
Anyone have a good site/graph for "real interest rates" over time, like 10, 20, 30 years.  TIA

Comments of my use of "annual" data, too long a period?  Use of CPI(U) vs. Core or CPE or ???

Comments/suggestions appreciated.

SeattleSun

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Real Interest Rates Fall to -1.42% in March 2014 (yoy) as CPI(U) ticks up to 1.51%.

Using the "annual numbers"

CPI is 1.51% to the second decimal place in March 2014 and the yield on the one year treasury is +0.09%

So the REAL interest rate is:
1 Yr T - Annual CPI = Real One Year Rate of Interest or
+0.09% - 1.51% = -1.42%

So your losing ONLY -1.42% purchasing power a year keeping your money in 1 Year Treasury Bills and -1.51% if you have cash under your mattress.

This isn't enough pain for the evil savers who are hording money in our society so expect the Fed to push for more inflation towards their target range of 2.0 to 2.5% and maybe beyond!
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