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Messages - Rob L

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General Lending Club Discussion / Short Squeeze or the Real Deal?
« on: December 01, 2020, 12:00:00 AM »
LC stock has been on a tear since putting in an opening low on 10/29 of $4.42. It was the third time it tested lows in that area.
They announced earnings after the close on 11/4. The stock had moved upwards to $5.55 into the close before earnings were announced.
The day after earnings were announced (11/5 Thursday) the stock was essentially unchanged on very heavy volume.
The next day 11/6 it was hammered back down to $4.99.
Before the open on Monday 11/9 Pfizer announced terrific results of their clinical vaccine trials and everything went up, including LC to $5.60
Things went sideways until 11/18 when LC soared up inexplicably on very heavy volume to close at $6.53.
On 11/20 it closed above its 200 day simple moving average $6.50.
It's been more or less straight up since then and LC closed today at $8.22 on heavy volume, up 86% from the low cited earlier.
However, closing at the low of the day today that saw a high of $8.68 should make tomorrow interesting. I have found absolutely no explanative LC news.
The message is either shorting in a bull market is dangerous or LC has better prospects ahead?
For the record I am neither short nor long, just an interested bystander.

Investors - LC /
« on: November 23, 2020, 12:00:00 AM »
Investors - LC /
« on: October 08, 2020, 11:00:00 PM »
Marcus and Ally are at 0.60%. So, I guessed 0.70% thinking LC will might possibly offer a tad more to be competitive.

I'm sure current note holders are all so pleased with LC they can't wait for this terrific opportunity! Probably should have guessed 0.50% but didn't factor this enthusiasm in.

Actually the whole idea doesn't make sense. LC is gonna spend a bunch of money creating a product for the very investors they walked away from? Really? You might add an "It ain't gonna happen" choice to your poll for the mega cynics like myself.
Investors - LC / Review of my lending club account
« on: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM »
The current chart shows the mass exodus of retail investors. Almost no accounts less than 9 months old.
For perspective a comparison from around 5 years ago. A very different picture.

In an unusual moment of clarity I realized what is the subject of this thread. It's something of a follow up the the "To What Lengths Do Some Folks Go In Planning Their Income Taxes" thread from last year. In that thread I posted the spreadsheet computation for a single year's decision. The retirement planning software I'd used for many years was no help so I had to do it manually. I was asking the wrong questions of it. The fundamental problem once in retirement is to find the most tax efficient investment/conversion/spending plan given the asset mix acquired leading to retirement. Obvious, but I can be slow on the uptake sometimes.

So, there is software out there that addresses this problem.
For starters, one is widely mentioned and recommended. Its a free browser based program that seems to be an excellent place to start:

After finding this it sounded vaguely familiar. "lascott" had recommended it last year in that previous thread (paragraph c). I tried out b) but never tried this one. Duh. Guess I didn't exactly know the right question to ask anyway.,18192.msg57790.html#msg57790

Also I found but know nothing about:

And it's more expensive version for financial advisors:

There are dozens of similar programs out there.
Now that I think I'm asking the right question, anyone "been there, done that" with a personal favorite?
We have a number of credit cards we rarely if never use. Pretty much put all our CC purchases on our 2% cash back CitiBank Mastercard. This past week one was cancelled (Capital One) and the limit on the other (Chase) was lowered. Our FICO is excellent but I understand this is a sensible risk reduction on their part.
Investors - LC / What is the lifecycle of a "hardship" loan?
« on: June 23, 2020, 11:00:00 PM »
"Neverlate" used to be an important factor. Is it still around? If so will a loan go through hardship, then grace and come out the other end still Neverlate?
Suggestions / Apologies for the Forum being offline
« on: June 16, 2020, 11:00:00 PM »
Yeah, glad it was just a glitch.
The forum traffic hasn't what it it was once was.
Thought the decision to pull the plug might not be accidental nor unreasonable.
Foliofn - LC / Goldman to buy Folio
« on: May 14, 2020, 11:00:00 PM »
I wonder how much of Folio's revenue and income result from the trading platform used for LC notes (and similar assets of other companies Prosper before it ended its relationship with Folio)? If it's a small and only modestly profitable part of the business Goldman could take it internal for its products only or possibly kill it. Given Marcus it's kinda hard to imaging GS providing trading services for LC notes.

Yes, I agree LC probably couldn't care less.
Should be very interesting.

BTW: LC stock closed yesterday, Thursday 4/23/2020, at its lifetime closing low of $6.56 per share ($1.31 pre-split).
Don't kick someone while they are down (I'm not). A whole lot has been way beyond their control.
Almost everybody's down as we all know only too well.
Foliofn - LC / Folio API stopped working since yesterday
« on: March 29, 2020, 11:00:00 PM »
Regarding LC I've become a well known perma-cynic. They have never been transparent on these things.

LC Folio could go the Prosper way for all we know.
Why is it thought the API is down by fault rather than intent and why think it will be restored? They have so much bigger fish to fry.

They just bought a bank before banks crashed. My uninformed speculation is they must have vastly overpaid as compared to today's valuations.
Can they get out of the deal or renegotiate? Their idea was good but massively overtaken by events (extremely unfortunate and not of their making).

My theory is not backed up with any financial / balance sheet analysis at all and may be totally off base.
Anybody who has a better ground truth, or at least an opinion with some numerical analysis, please set me straight.
Off Topic / Cash Parking
« on: March 29, 2020, 11:00:00 PM »
To put a book end on it, the opening through the first two months of our TAB bank Kasasa checking account experience has been extremely positive. Opening was simple and afterwards we transferred in $5k from our Ally bank savings to initially fund it. We gave it a few weeks testing and then transferred in another $45k to take full advantage of the max amount qualifying for the 4% rate. It was always our intention to replace our Wells Fargo checking account with this account so we have had no problem generating the 15 debit card transactions and single ACH per month to qualify for the 4% rate. We are way over on both. Anyway, no regrets and soon good bye completely to WF :)

We received an email today saying the max rate was being lowered to 3% from 4%. Obviously this was no surprise. Our Ally bank savings account now only pays 1.5% and our old WF checking account paid zip. WF even charged a $12 monthly fee for Quicken downloads and another $12 fee if the daily average balance in a month was less than $1,500. I'm really going to miss their great customer service though (not)!
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