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Messages - lctz

#1
Investors - LC / RIP Lendingclub Notes
October 06, 2020, 11:00:00 PM
They turned into a bank.  They start to offer "high yield" Founders Savings account. which basically means borrow from you at a lower rate and lend it with a higher rate-- a bank by definition.  It is good to the stock.  Instead of passing higher yield to you, lendingclub will keep it.
#2
It depends on interest rates.  If LC rating model considers the effect; it might charge higher interest rates to compensate the risk.  You can look at historical data to see if this population has higher interest rates comparing to similar rated loans.
#3
Investors - LC / Winding down on Lending Club
March 03, 2020, 11:00:00 PM
You don't have to wait 3-5yr to get majority of your money back.  Because LC loans are amortizing, each payment contains a portion of principal.  Depending on average age of your loans, you could get cash quicker.  I did an experiment on one of my accounts; in one year, I wind down 2/3 of my portfolio value.  You can use LC API to withdraw money daily.
#4
Investors - LC / Worst Month Yet
December 08, 2019, 11:00:00 PM
https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=3551.msg61416#msg61416">Quote"> from: Rob L on November 15, 2019, 03:46:10 PM
#5
Foliofn - LC / folio loan model prices
November 09, 2019, 11:00:00 PM
I've developed a few models based on historical data to price folio loans.  I built different models for loans with different status. 
Loans that are current are priced based on historical default & prepayment behaviours and recent fico changes.  Late loans are priced based on potential recoveries and are highly uncertain. My model couldn't price 'In Grace Period' loans because lack of historical data.

I've set up automatic process to price all loans once every week.

You can download my model output here https://app.box.com/s/mtmeot4pxbdrznf3s6etw7gbjamvpro7" class="bbc_link" target="_blank">https://app.box.com/s/mtmeot4pxbdrznf3s6etw7gbjamvpro7

feedbacks are welcome.
#6
Investors - LC / Worst Month Yet
November 07, 2019, 11:00:00 PM
Interesting read.  Somehow I experienced better returns.  Most of my loans are B and C.  I started around 2015 with two accounts.  One is a testing account that I used to test various of models; the other is my main account controlled by stable models after I feel comfortable with my models.
My main account has return about 5.6% and test account about 4.6%.  I am starting to test secondary market models.  I'll share some of my model predicted secondary loan prices later.
#7
https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=4996.msg61392#msg61392">Quote"> from: mark78 on November 06, 2019, 07:01:44 PM
#9
Investors - LC / Can the notes of whole loans be traded?
November 01, 2019, 11:00:00 PM
I would demand a higher return for whole loan due to risk concentration.  The chance of one $100 note default is higher than equal quality 4 $25 notes default at the same time.
#10
Foliofn - LC / picking up pennies
December 31, 1969, 06:00:00 PM
https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=5030.msg44142#msg88888888Quote"> from: mikedev10 on January 07, 2019, 08:32:31 PM
#11
Foliofn - LC / ytm vs. remaining payments
December 31, 1969, 06:00:00 PM
remaining payments affect ytm in many ways:
1. liquidity risk, longer remaining payments means your investment is locked longer.  You demand higher yield for compensation (e.g: 1yr CD rate is usually lower than 3yr CD).
2. interest rate risk. usually ignored for consumer credit product because of dominance of credit risk.
3. Default risk.  The biggest part.  A unit default risk (academic name: hazard rate, default risk per month) is different at each age (e.g. higher rate of default in middle age than earlier age.). Using survival analysis, you can compute an empirical survival curve and use this curve to calculate YTM that depends on remaining payments.