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Messages - rubicon

[1] 2 3
1
lendingclub is also subject to ECOA, which legally prohibits it from discriminating among certain borrower pools. The most common example is zip code, which could be a proxy for race.


also, hedge funds can value their portfolios in one of two ways:
- mark to market e.g. based on current interest rates
- held to maturity (not subject to mark to market) but starting off with a loss reserve and making write-ups or write-downs when there's evidence the loss reserve is too conservative or too aggressive. This smooths out the returns stream over time and mitigates the impact of returns coming down over time that retail investors see in their accounts as retail accounts only get mark-down when there's an actual credit event.

2
Investors - LC / LC Email: "The Next Generation Credit Model"
« on: September 19, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
They expect lower projected annualized net credit loss on F/G loans on 36 months compared to 60 months: 17.95% vs 16.99%. My guess is that the prepayment for 60 months F/G loans is high enough that the credit losses is actually lower (compared to 36 months). Hence perversely they are able to offer lower interest rate on 60 months F/G loans as you still get higher net projected return with a term premium of app. 1% (9.84% vs 8.89%). I guess lots of 60 month F/G loans refinance into 36 months D/E loans after 1 - 2 years.

But yes it does seem heavily data driven.
3
Investors - LC / LC Email: "The Next Generation Credit Model"
« on: September 11, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
it does seem that LC wins while investors lose if there's grade inflation.
4
Investors - LC / Selling Houston loans
« on: August 30, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
Have started selling them aggressively since Monday and have sold more than 2/3. About 20% stuck in payment processing.

Will track them to see how fast they turn to IGP.

https://www.maptechnica.com/zip3-prefix-map/770

Zip codes =
770xx
773xx
774xx
775xx
776xx
777xx
778xx
779xx
784xx

706xx

Edited to add
772xx
783xx
5
Investors - LC /
« on: July 30, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
Jul 31

ANAR: 10.26% (combined return)
Number of notes: 26328

https://www.lendingclub.com/account/lenderBenchmarkReturns.action
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio: 25.1 months

https://www.lendingclub.com/account/lenderAccountDetail.action
Weighted Average Rate:16.40%
A: 0.1%
B: 4.6%
C: 32.1%
D: 35.5%
E: 21.7%
F: 4.9%
G:  1.1%

36: 91.2%
60: 8.8%


This will be my last update as I'm selling down my portfolio. I'm seeing significant deterioration in returns in certain months this year.



photo host site
6
Investors - LC /
« on: June 17, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
glad you're both safe. hope you make a full recovery!
7
Investors - LC / June seems to be a horrible month for me
« on: June 16, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
Even worse than Jan/Feb. I've stopped re-investing my cashflows
8
check out Poise and Theorem.
9
Investors - LC /
« on: May 01, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
May 01

https://www.lendingclub.com/account/summary.action
ANAR: 10.13% (combined return)
Number of notes: 29446

https://www.lendingclub.com/account/lenderBenchmarkReturns.action
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio: 22.0 months

https://www.lendingclub.com/account/lenderAccountDetail.action
Weighted Average Rate:16.30%
A: 0.3%
B: 4.8%
C: 33.5%
D: 35.4%
E: 19.8%
F: 5.2%
G:  0.9%

36: 87.1%
60: 12.9%
10
Foliofn - LC / Getting Shafted Buying Notes?
« on: April 27, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
this doesn't work since notes get cancelled if the status changes.
11
Investors - LC /
« on: April 26, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
1. I understand the charge-off methodology but I don't really like it since if you hit a bump in your portfolio you only know 9 months later. Also you need to make sure you are comparing against the balance from 9 months ago when calculating the %. This is a cash method as it compares cash interest against actual charge-offs taken.

2. Instead I prefer to use an accrual method, using the monthly change in adjustments for late loans and adding back the cash interest paid as well change in accrued interest. This gives a more real-time read on the portfolio. You also don't have to mess about with the denominator.

Hence I saw that Jan was an absolutely awful month but Feb, Mar and April have improved. Possibly a seasonal impact (tax returns).
12
Foliofn - LC /
« on: April 13, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
also they cancel buy purchases during the day (if say the note has an event). That would put cash back into your account.
13
Investors - LC / Not worth the returns after taxes.
« on: April 12, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
Please check out this
http://www.aba.com/Tools/Offers/Documents/Chapman_Regulation_Marketplace_Lending_0317.pdf

Specifically page 90. Lending Club chooses to treat the Notes as Debt.

The Debt Approach also requires that the Operator and the investors treat the Platform Notes as debt instruments issued with original issue discount, or “OID.”


Platform Notes treated as debt instruments, and treated as issued by the Operators, would be subject to the OID rules to the extent that interest on those notes is not regarded as “unconditionally payable”—a reasonable assumption given that interest is payable only to the extent received on an underlying Borrower Loan.

14
Investors - LC /
« on: March 30, 2017, 11:00:00 PM »
Mar 31

https://www.lendingclub.com/account/summary.action
ANAR: 10.15% (combined return)
Number of notes: 28387

https://www.lendingclub.com/account/lenderBenchmarkReturns.action
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio: 21.0 months

https://www.lendingclub.com/account/lenderAccountDetail.action
Weighted Average Rate:16.21%
A: 0.3%
B: 4.7%
C: 35.4%
D: 35.2%
E: 18.5%
F: 5.0%
G:  0.9%

36: 86.5%
60: 13.5%
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