P2P Forum

Lending Club Discussion => Investors - LC => Topic started by: viking on March 07, 2013, 12:00:00 AM

Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: viking on March 07, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
With the much lower number of notes available in the last few weeks (I used to see around 1,100 notes total vs around 500 now) I was curious to see how the Number of Available Loans varied throughout the day and night (times are PST):
GRADES A-C:

GRADES D-G:


Note
1. Most loans are posted to the website at 6 AM (06:00) , 10 AM (10:00), 2 PM (14:00), and 6 PM (18:00). However there are two small additions at 2 AM and 10 PM as well (it has been consistent for the few days that I checked).         
2. Usually, the largest fraction of  new loans is posted at 6 AM (which is not surprising since most applicants may apply after work).         
3. As expected(?) the lower grade loans (D-G) are disappearing relatively faster than the higher grade loans (A-C); e.g. between 10 AM and 2 PM, D-G dropped by 73% while A-C dropped by 29% and between 2 PM and 6 PM, D-G dropped by 68% while A-C dropped by 29% .
4. It is interesting that most notes are purchased during the day rather than than in the evening (the rate of decline is much lower after the 6 PM addition). I wonder if this is because the institutional investors are picking up most of the notes during work-hours?

EDIT: I guess that the LC Prime purchases are also happening during work-hours, and this may partly contribute to the fast decay.
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: Lovinglifestyle on March 07, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
Very enlightening.  Thanks!
It's motivation to stop messing around from 7-8 (my 6-7 time here) and get to browsing!
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: TravelingPennies on March 07, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
from: Lovinglifestyle on March 07, 2013, 11:02:45 PM
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: brycemason on March 08, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
With my site up and running, it's been fascinating to watch how fast the picks get gobbled up. Roughly half of the picks are 70% funded within 3-5 minutes, and almost all of them are gone before the next upload. Weekend / night is slower, consistent with this.
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: TravelingPennies on March 08, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
from: brycemason on March 08, 2013, 12:02:19 AM
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: TravelingPennies on March 08, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
Yep. I'm pursuing this.
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: New Jersey Guy on March 08, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
Viking....Even though I can't buy off the Lending Club Platform, that's great research. 
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: writing2reality on March 08, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
Nice charts and great research!

Makes me thankful for my east coast location... at work with my computer ready to go at nine am...
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: Peter on March 08, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
Great analysis Viking - worthy of a post on the blog I think. Only a subset of my readers are on the forum. Can I use your charts in a post? Happy to credit you in any way you would like.
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: TravelingPennies on March 08, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
"Happy to credit you in any way you would like."

He enjoys sizeable amounts of cash.
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: TravelingPennies on March 08, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
from: Peter on March 08, 2013, 11:44:30 AM
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: PennySaved on March 09, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
Wow, great research.  It looks like early birds get the worms.
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: faeriering on March 10, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
Really nice analysis Viking!  I'm glad to see that when I can check notes at night there's a higher likelihood of something being available.  Also really interesting that notes are getting published outside of the main 4 time slots.

Thanks!
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: FrankieC on March 10, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
from: viking on March 08, 2013, 12:17:14 AM
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: TravelingPennies on March 10, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
from: FrankieC on March 11, 2013, 02:42:06 AM
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: P2P_CT on March 10, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
Great analysis, Viking.  Interesting that so few D-G loans are on offer.

Your analysis might point to the power of the institutional investor, who, in my opinion, would be less likely to invest outside of normal office hours. 

Before reading your analysis, I would download the Browse Notes file at any time of day.  Now, I will aim for the 6am file. 

Thanks! 

Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: viking on March 10, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
from: P2P_CT on March 11, 2013, 06:49:21 AM
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: TravelingPennies on March 10, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
A small reality check; The original graph(s) may give the impression that there are very few notes available shortly after they are posted. However, note that the axis did not start at zero. The same graphs with axis starting at zero instead are shown below:
GRADES A-C:

GRADES D-G:
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: Randawl on March 10, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
from: viking on March 11, 2013, 04:28:07 PM
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: TravelingPennies on March 10, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
from: Randawl on March 11, 2013, 06:12:12 PM
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: TravelingPennies on March 10, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
Quote
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: TravelingPennies on March 10, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
In order to determine the behavior of "good loans", I used IR to determine the availability of loans for a modified Score Strategy.Here are the results for a particular strategy and day:

"Good Loans" (IR modified Score Strategy)

Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: dontvote on March 10, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
If you ran the prosper version of this chart it would bounce from zero to one at those times.

dont
joke
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: TravelingPennies on March 11, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
As promised previously, here are examples of weekend vs Wednesday behavior;

GRADES A-C (note that the scale starts at 300):


GRADES D-G


Loans disappear (e.g. get funded) the slowest on Sunday; slightly faster on Saturday and the fastest on Wednesday.
On some Sundays, the number of available loans are even steadily increasing:

GRADES A-C for 2 different Sundays (note that the scale starts at 400):

(the graph for 3/3/13 has a lower time-resolution than the one on 3/10/13)

Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: FrankieC on March 11, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
Thank you for doing this. Very interesting. I didn't realize notes were added on weekends. I thought it was a weekday thing only.
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: TravelingPennies on March 11, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
Also interesting to see that this is still a human operated business. Institutional investors may have an API but it doesn't look like they're truly automating their investments (otherwise we wouldn't see this m-f 9-5 effect).

Possible they have an API load in the notes and some kind of intern approving them :)

dontvote
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: bgator76 on March 11, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
Thanks for the very informative post.  This brings up a question about Nickel Steamroller that I've been wondering for a while.  When I search through NS, it seems like I'm not always getting the freshest listing of loans.  How often/when are the listings found through NS updated?  Am I missing out on some good opportunities by only searching through NS?  It's unfortunate that LC's website doesn't allow as many filter settings, and of course doesn't give me the estimated ROI I get from NS.
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: Peter on March 11, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
There is now a post on the blog with these charts:
http://www.lendacademy.com/lending-club-loans-being-snapped-up-quickly/
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: TravelingPennies on March 11, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
from: bgator76 on March 12, 2013, 06:32:44 PM
Title: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
Post by: NSR on March 27, 2013, 11:00:00 PM
You may find these charts of interest:

http://www.nickelsteamroller.com/chart/combined/availability?platform=lendingclub

http://www.nickelsteamroller.com/chart/combined/availability?platform=prosper

I'm now monitoring this data in 5 minute increments. I will be making it available for download once I have a full month of data.  I plan to keep this data on file forever.