This should be fun.
I mentioned in another thread that I still run my auto-invest program every feeding time and score all the new loans. I have it set to invest zero dollars since I'm cashing out but I still get scoring values. So, as time permits, I plan to post what I see as the worst grade A-C loan of the day. Many say the D and lower loans are all terrible (and I have experienced the pain) so I won't go there. Some daily loans will be much worse than others but all will be terrible (at least as I evaluate them). I encourage everyone to post loans they evaluate as even worse than mine:
So, let's start with:
Offered at 5pm EDT on 12/18/2017 a B4 at 10.91% APR:
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=125947093&previous=browse
I have this one ranked worse than yours:
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=126000465I have added two other loans today (5.32 and 16.02)
Good work boys- lets expose this shite.
Okay, I opened up the flood gates so to speak and now get scores on just about all the A,B,C 36 month loans (I don't do 60's).
So many loans, so little time, ... The worst loan of the evening is (drum roll please):
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=125988314A C3 at 14.08%, 9% funded now so there's plenty of time left to invest
In addition to posting the duds of the day, I would love it if you also post why you think each loan is the biggest stinker. This would be good for me to understand how other people evaluate bad/risky loans.
Another winner from the 1pm EDT drop:
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=125917599LC assigns this as a B4, 10.91% interest, 4.03% probability of default.
My wacky auto-invest program says it's a 31.8% probability of default; go figure. What can I say.
From the same drop there's also this gem:
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=126084792&previous=browseLC assigns a C4, 15.05% interest, 7.00% probability of default.
My same wacky auto-invest program says it's a 32.2% probability of default, but it scores slightly higher than the first loan since the interest rate (reward) is a tad higher.
If anyone out there is using a third party invests for their account in any of the loans I post in this thread as terrible it would be fascinating to hear about it.
I'll take a sizable bet that will never happen. Bring it on ...
Much appreciated Rob L.
Just so it doesn't seem as if there aren't some really bad A grade notes out there:
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=126165764LC assigns an A3 grade, 1.84% probability of default and a 6.72% APR? Who buys this stuff?
Maybe the worst A, B and C of the previous day or two would be interesting.
Also, the $ amount of funding per investor has historically shown the popularity a loan (the larger the amount and/or fewer investors the more popular the loan). If wisdom of the crowd has any relevance then the larger the amount the better the loan. That's the third parameter before the URL.
A5, 7.97%, $34.19
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=126198526B4, 10.91%, $35.46
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=126104375C2, 13.59%, $37.73
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=126147546Examples of loans that scored highly:
C4, 15.05%, $50.79
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=126200380C5, 16.02%, $91.86
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=125954804
Couldn't let this one pass without a post. Worst score yet:
B2, 9.93%, $33.23
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=126185226
A new absolute worst A,B or C record holder:
B2, 9.93%, $34.78
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=126423450I'll say again, who buys this stuff?
An amazingly bad deal for the lender and it's hard to imagine anyone would disagree.
Interesting. Your model's scores appear to correlate strongly with credit record and employment info (present or not), which is no surprise. I don't think I disagreed with any of the ones your model downrates.
What is wrong with this loan? I don't see anything that stands out. It is just someone going through divorce most probably. Is it just your model saying it is a bad loan?
https://www.peercube.com/comment?loanid=126456415
A new absolute worst of the worst, A, B and C:
B5, 11.99%, $36.30,
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=126152170BTW, this interesting loan below scored very well.
Typically a FICO of 810 merits a loan grade better than C3 so the LC model sees something that makes this loan much more risky than FICO indicates.
C3, 14.08%, $60.28
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=126651939
Interesting indeed, both of them.
Can't exactly remember, but near if not the absolute worst of the worst (so far):
C2, 13,59%, $33.45,
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=126385908
Okay, this unequivocally the worst yet. Not sure the score can go lower, but we will see.
B2, 10 42%, $27.17
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=126923844&previous=browse
One of the unexpected things about the LC grading system is how much of a spread of FICO score you find in each grade, especially A and B.
I made this chart a few months back...
Very very nice work! I've had something like this on my todo list but I was thinking a scatter diagram. This is much better.
My take away is that the predictive power of FICO regarding LC grades shown on the chart is the slope of the curve's at each point. Pretty obvious. Where the curves are flat there is little correlation. Steep and FICO is correlated. That said, FICO between 660-705 is least predictive for B grade. The curve is pretty flat there. If you throw out F & G since they don't matter anymore and plot the first derivative of each curve, the correlation between FICO and LC grade should jump off the chart (I think). Easier said than done!
My main takeaway was surprise at how WIDE these curves are. The correlation between FICO and grade is far less than I had imagined. There are "A" loans across the entire range of FICO scores. Who would have imagined that?
Both FICO and grade (independently) are good predictors of default rate, and yet they are not the same thing in different clothing.
An absolute new low by far! The new super duper LC G5 model wants lenders to fund this??
C1, 12.62% $29.76
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=127342041I don't know what's going on with G5 but this is an
amazingly bad loan as I see it.
There seems to be plenty of time to jump board. Only $625 of the $10,000 loan is funded at this time (21 hardy investor souls).
The crowd seems to like this one even less:
C3, 14.08% $0.00
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=127366829There are zero investors at this time.
The Latin phrase "caveat emptor" seems to be most appropriate.
"The crowd seems to like this one even less:
C3, 14.08% $0.00
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=127366829There are zero investors at this time."
No kidding! Now, at 9:00 p.m., it's listed as "invalid loan". Wonder what that's code for?
My code also flushed out 127342041, but not enough data to predict a default probability.
Here's my worst of this morning: 127296020, C2 (13.59%). My code predicts a 34.6% probability of defaulting. Would be curious to see other folks' numbers on this as I am not using linear reg.
Okay, I believe this is the worst yet.
Going to start posting the raw loan score just to be able to verify new lows when I find them.
B5, 11.99%, $33.80
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=127697324This one is now 100% funded, $12,000 loan and 355 investors. Pd = 53.5%, Score 38.24.
There are so many problems with this one. It punches all the bad buttons. Not even close.
Maybe it's me. Does this one look attractive to anyone out there?
My site ranked 127296020 a 30 out of 82. 82 is the least likely to default, haha. Very awful loan.
Although, I have seen some zeros and an occasional negative sore as well. Yikes.
New low score:
C1, 12.62%, $39.28
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=128208659This one is now 36% funded, $8,375 loan and 79 investors. Pd = 58.3%, Score 33.10
Verified monthly income is $649, monthly loan payment is $280.66. That's going to be a struggle.
New low score (by far the worst I've seen since I started looking):
C3, 14.08% $31.70
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=128311871&previous=browseNow 15% funded, $11,775 loan and 56 investors. Pd = 79.2%, Score 13.57.
Verified monthly gross income $1,095 per month, monthly loan payment $402.90. More than a struggle!!
Zowie. I want to be on the other side of this trade.
Not the absolute worst, but the worst in a while:
C2, 13.58%, $34.05
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=129579506Now 79% funded, $19,225 loan and 450 investors. Pd = 53.3%, Score 39.16.
Verified monthly gross income $1,833 per month, monthly loan payment $653.16. Once again more than a struggle!!
Earliest credit line 2003 so it's not a cash rich but income poor retiree. It's an individual, not a joint application.
Just when you think you've seen the lowest score an new champion appears:
C5, 13.58%, $31.53
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=130137821Now 12% funded, $22,850 loan and 88 investors. Pd = 72.8%, Score 19.26.
Non-verified monthly gross income $1,667 per month, monthly loan payment $803.46.
Yep, that's right. Monthly payment is 48% of gross income. Massage therapist in Cupertino, CA.
You can't make this stuff up.