Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: joshmer on April 19, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: joshmer on April 19, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Just a question for anyone out there to throw some thoughts around. I recently started to reprice my notes that have had a late payment before and are now current. I figured that 95% of principle balance would be a good place to start with notes that have a downward trending FICO, but I'm been surprised to see the large portion of my notes selling quickly. Has anyone done an analysis the value of a note going late at least one time? Outside of lending club's cure rates I didn't see a post on true statistics around notes having further payment issues.
Thanks!
Thanks!
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: yojoakak on April 19, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: yojoakak on April 19, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
There's plenty of never-late notes for sale right around par so I'm not sure why anyone would bother taking a chance on a 5% discount.
Ah well. The Wisdom of the Market I guess.
Ah well. The Wisdom of the Market I guess.
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: Fred on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Fred on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Some statistics on Current notes on FOLIOfn as of tonight (4/20):
from: joshmer on April 20, 2014, 05:52:35 PM
from: joshmer on April 20, 2014, 05:52:35 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: rawraw on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: rawraw on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Is that how your model determines the selling price for FolioFN strategy?
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: merits on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: merits on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
generally, I don't think it is easy to sell now-current notes with a premium.
The average above is the average by listing, not the average sale price of the market.
The average above is the average by listing, not the average sale price of the market.
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: Ran on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Ran on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: core on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: core on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Fred those statistics are nice to look at, but I don't see how examining what's currently listed can give you confident purchasing data. You're only looking at what hasn't sold, and none of that which sold quickly. Also it seems to me that your data would be seriously skewed by just a few people who list things at unrealistically high prices with no intention of selling the notes except to fools. This increases your max markup, increases the avg, (MAYBE changes your purchasing, depending on how you have it set up) but the real market hasn't changed one bit.
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: Bohb Daishi on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Bohb Daishi on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: rawraw on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: rawraw on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
One of these days Peter should interview Fred about how quant magic. I imagine we are interacting with the forum-friendly version of Watson.
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: Rob L on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Rob L on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: core on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: core on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: Fred on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Fred on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: Ran on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Ran on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: mikedave on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: mikedave on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
I can offer one data point. I list all my now current IGP and late notes at 0% markup. They rarely sell at this markup, I might sell one per month out of about 30 notes. If you have a bunch of notes to dump in a hurry you will have to offer a discount.
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: Lovinglifestyle on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Lovinglifestyle on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
I started doing this too a couple of days ago, after de-listing them all for two days. I don't expect any to sell. I just feel like taking a break from the deep-deep discounts and re-pricing.
I'm curious--how many a month out of the 30 or so do you see go current?
from: mikedave on April 23, 2014, 01:40:00 PM
I'm curious--how many a month out of the 30 or so do you see go current?
from: mikedave on April 23, 2014, 01:40:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 23, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 23, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
the 30 or so notes are all previously late now current. I have 10 notes currently late or IGP. I offer them up automatically at small discounts. Every now and again I look at them and decide if I want to dump them or keep them to see if they will go current. To dump them I just start lowing the discount until they are gone generally based on the FICO trend and if the borrower is promising to pay. For example Just sold an ugly L16 with a big step down in FICO trend and not borrower not returning call of mails for 80% discount.
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 23, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 23, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Sorry--I had "late" in my brain even though you clearly stated "...but now current".
Today 10 of 36 IGP went current. Two 31+ lates that were BKs were charged off.
I find the "payment processing" and BK rules so disruptive to the sales process that
I cancelled all my (52) assorted listings again today and have no future plans for them.
Today 10 of 36 IGP went current. Two 31+ lates that were BKs were charged off.
I find the "payment processing" and BK rules so disruptive to the sales process that
I cancelled all my (52) assorted listings again today and have no future plans for them.
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 26, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 26, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 27, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 27, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 28, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 28, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: P2PFact on April 28, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: P2PFact on April 28, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: core on April 28, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: core on April 28, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: Fred on April 29, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Fred on April 29, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 29, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 29, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 29, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 29, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: rawraw on April 29, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: rawraw on April 29, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 29, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 29, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 30, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 30, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 30, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 30, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
I knew you'd ask these follow-up questions. 
If I can explain in terms of Expected Loss (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_loss) = PD * LGD * EAD, the blue portions of LC pie charts are (PD * LGD). I define the EAD simply as the dirty price (Oustanding Principal + Accrued Interest) of the notes.
Please note that the LC definition is the probability to reach the Charged-Off status; while the usual PD measures only until the Default status (i.e., one node prior to Charged-Off).
If I can explain in terms of Expected Loss (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_loss) = PD * LGD * EAD, the blue portions of LC pie charts are (PD * LGD). I define the EAD simply as the dirty price (Oustanding Principal + Accrued Interest) of the notes.
Please note that the LC definition is the probability to reach the Charged-Off status; while the usual PD measures only until the Default status (i.e., one node prior to Charged-Off).
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 30, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 30, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 30, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 30, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: Ran on June 24, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Ran on June 24, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 24, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 24, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
So the sweet spot is buying grace period notes?
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 24, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 24, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 24, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 24, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Value of previously late notes
Post by: Ran on June 25, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Ran on June 25, 2014, 11:00:00 PM