Skip to main content

Author Topic: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version

R
  • Posts: 484
Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
OP: June 03, 2017, 11:00:00 PM
These charts were kept up to date until about a year ago when I started ignoring Prosper.
Since a new monthly statement just came out I thought it would be a good time to bring them up to date.

For the record my account was funded with one single investment in July of 2014. I used Prosper Quick Invest with a very small number of filters that selected only A and B notes, $25 each.
When Prosper shut down Folio I'd had enough and discontinued purchasing notes in September of 2016.
My Prosper main page says my Annualized Net Returns are now 3.94% which seems close to the cumulative profit chart above.
Very roughly, 10.73% / ( 34 months / 12 months) = 3.79%.
I have no idea what it said before they fixed their problem, but I never believed it anyway. It was always way higher than anything I could compute.

Anyway FWIW:









  • IP logged

T
  • Posts: 6588
Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
#1: July 05, 2017, 11:00:00 PM
Again FWIW, another month --








  • IP logged

B
  • Posts: 8
Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
#2: July 07, 2017, 11:00:00 PM
Don't know, but I am having great luck with Prosper.  I have over invested in more than 2000 loans and am getting >10% return coming up on my first anniversary.  I think the only way to go is to use the API.  The auto invest doesn't have adequate filtering and its far too tedious to do manually.
  • IP logged


T
  • Posts: 6588
Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
#4: July 09, 2017, 11:00:00 PM
I have my own API that I wrote last year that uses about 20 criteria for choosing a loan.  These criteria were chosen to try to find borrowers with good payment history and solid (and higher) income.  I made an attempt to backtest the criteria, but in the end I think most are fairly common sense.  Since the criteria are very restrictive, I will on average only 1-5 loans purchased per day.  However, since it runs more or less constantly, I don't really have to think much about it.

What's the span of loan interest rates (constant over time where letter grades are not) in which you have invested? - I have only invested in loans with expected returns over 4.3%.  I don't know the breakdown off the top of my head, but the distribution of loans is probably centered around a B/C loan.
What are the percentages of 36 and 60 month loans you own?For quite a while I ignored term, but since April I have wanted to slow the growth in the account, so I only purchase 3 year loans.  This gives me slightly better liquidity and monthly cash flow should I need it.
How are you measuring >10% returns? I haven't donw any fancy analysis.  My Annualizsed Net Returns is 11.34% and Seasoned is 10.98%.  Lending Robot tells me my expected is 9.67%.  My back of the envelope calculations that I did at the end of June tell me that I have made over 5% on my average balance in the first half of the year
How much difference did you see on your web account summary page in "Annualized Net Returns" before and after Prosper fixed the bug they found in their computation of this metric?I don't recall a difference, but I had just started seeing that metric a couple of months prior, so I really hadn't paid too much attention
Finally, what were your thoughts when Prosper took away your ability liquidate your portfolio via FolioFn?Not something I ever looked into.  Of course I would prefer to be able to liquidate, but my preferred use of the platform is to create a constant cashflow

Since my average note is only 5-6 months old, my experience certainly could change as they mature.  Right now though, I am very happy with the platform.
  • IP logged

T
  • Posts: 6588
Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
#5: July 09, 2017, 11:00:00 PM
Thanks, keep us posted from time to time.
  • IP logged

d
  • Posts: 7
Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
#6: July 16, 2017, 11:00:00 PM
I'm having much better luck with Propser than LC.  While my real LC returns keep dwindling way down (4.6% in one acct and 2.8% in the other), my real Prosper returns are holding up fairly well around 7-8%.  Not great but good enough to keep me happy as a more consistent return and a hedge against the high volatility of the stock market.  I keep about half of my total portfolio in S&P500 funds and the other half in peer-to-peer lending (LC, Prosper, and Peer Street).

That's using a basic auto invest filter (not API).  My account page shows a 6.72% Seasoned return, 7.22% All-notes return.  The account is 3.5 years old.  I only buy 36mo notes.  I have ~1900 active notes, mostly B and C grade but some D/E/HR too.  It's a little tricky to calculate a "real" return (true account value over time) longer term since I've been adding funds to my P account as I'm draining my disappointing LC accounts.  But I do have two clean periods for comparison where no funds were added.  One is the last 4 months, where my account value increased 8.2% (annualized).  The other was a 9-mo period in 2016 (Apr-Dec) where I also experienced a real 8.2% annualized return.  I added funds early in 1Q2016 and 1Q2017 which took a few months to invest into notes so I don't have clean data points for those months.

I think I'm done adding more money, and I don't plan to withdrawal any for years, so I should be able to better track long-term returns from here on out.  If I can keep getting around 8% real return, I'll be happy.
  • IP logged

T
  • Posts: 6588
Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
#7: July 16, 2017, 11:00:00 PM
Yeah, I agree. I've only lost money in three Prosper months, but many more in LC.
However, when Prosper took away my exit by shutting down Folio I decided to leave.
That was a deal breaker.
  • IP logged

.
  • Posts: 61
Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
#8: July 16, 2017, 11:00:00 PM
I noticed your returns are declining, please check out my YouTube video and please give my LC Investment strategy a try.  It is free for now in Beta!  :) . I'll post this in every other thread on this board as well, just in case.

JUST KIDDING!! Don't shoot!!

I have been investing in Prosper since 2014 as well, and stopped all reinvesting a few months back. All funds are now being withdrawn as they become available.

For me, the gross miscalculation of the returns and being a private company (little visibility into the health of the business) were strikes one and two.

The removal of the secondary market was the death knell. I wish I had sold out before that happened, but I didn't have the finger on the trigger like I should have. Now I am stuck with an investment with a 3-5 year liquidity horizon. I personally believe(no data to back this up, just common sense) that P2P investments could incur significant losses during a pullback in the economy, and if this happens within the next 4.5 years, I won't be able to do anything but painfully watch this bleed out.
  • IP logged


  • *****
  • Hero Member
  • Posts: 594




T
  • Posts: 6588
Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
#14: August 04, 2017, 11:00:00 PM
Another month and another set of charts (spoiler, there are no surprises).
If Prosper had not shut down Folio I think I'd still be investing there. Liquidity has value!















  • IP logged