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Author Topic: Beware the 20th of March

y
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Beware the 20th of March
OP: December 11, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
Or the 20th of any month actually. That seems to be the day LendingClub turns Late notes into Charged Off notes. And maybe the 5th as well.

Whatever the case, since about June my returns have been near 0%.

I'm not sure if it's just been a spate of bad luck, or (more likely) some astute investors have been peddling their Current-but-Doomed notes on Foliofn at discounts just big enough to get me to bite (in which case I congratulate you, whoever you may be).

Anyone else having the same experience?
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N
  • Posts: 98
Beware the 20th of March
#1: December 11, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
I don't know, but this really seems like a case of "User-Fault".  Meaning, nobody forces you to hit that "Buy" button regardless of whatever stunts the sellers might be using!

0% returns?  C'mon!  The newbie investors at the Hellen Keller school are getting better returns than that!

Your post, though, isn't without some merit. 

I'm still seeing notes that are "Processing" up for sale on Folio.  So yes, the cheats are out there.

My inventory of speculative notes is still down 65% of what it was end of October.  The Interest Radar melt-down surely didn't help as I was unable to buy any note during that period.  However, I'm still having problems finding notes that fit my criteria.  I also noticed this right before the meltdown, too.  This has been forcing me to buy notes that I would have otherwise passed on in October.   So yea, I am taking more risk, and I have a feeling that will begin to catch up with me come January.

As far as Buy/Hold notes?  I haven't had much of a problem there.  As a matter of fact, shopping for these notes has been pretty fruitful.  I just wish I had more money!  My IRR for these notes is right around 13.8%.  I have just a few late notes.  I've only been forced to sell 2 sour notes on Folio since June and I've had no defaults.

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T
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Beware the 20th of March
#3: December 11, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
"If anything I'm in awe of their predictive abilities."

Aw, c'mon!  Even the almighty Core couldn't even predict that!

What are the average age of these notes you are buying?
Keep in mind missed payments reach their peak right around an average age of 12 months, then come the defaults.

If you are buying notes that are 5,6 7 or 8 months old only to have them go bad a few months later, you need to look at more seasoned notes. 

If the notes you purchase are over 15 months old and going bad one after another, well, then I would say it's bad luck!

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c
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D
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Beware the 20th of March
#5: December 11, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
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T
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Beware the 20th of March
#6: December 11, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
Dan if you were part of or had knowledge of the scheme then you would attempt to convince us that no scheme existed.  If you don't have such knowledge, then you wouldn't know the answer one way or the other.  So logically, your statements cannot be trusted.

And of course there is a real collection log.  LC couldn't conduct its business properly if all they had to go on in the notes was "Borrower contacted Lending Club".  You don't need to be a conspiracy theorist to accept the possibility that some lowly support rep making $30k in an expensive city might be tempted to use his/her inside knowledge to boost their income a bit by selling information to a 3rd party.

Funny that you should use the phrase "that you need to be aware of".  I realize it was said in jest, but this reminds me of all those other things that we "didn't need to be aware of" but yet a sinister network of various journalists did "need to be aware of".  A 'need' depends on who's doing the deciding.
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T
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Beware the 20th of March
#7: December 11, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
"There was no second shooter, there was no cover up in Roswell & I assure you that there is no "real" collection log.............that you need to be aware of"

When DanB was 5 years old, he's the kid that sent the entire kindergarten class home crying after telling them Santa is a fake, fraud and doesn't exist.

Although, I'm not sure how any of this pertains to Yojoakak's original post.
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T
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Beware the 20th of March
#8: December 11, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
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T
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Beware the 20th of March
#9: December 11, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
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T
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Beware the 20th of March
#10: December 11, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
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B
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T
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Beware the 20th of March
#13: December 12, 2013, 12:00:00 AM
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