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Lending Club Discussion => Investors - LC => Topic started by: bcinvest2016 on November 11, 2016, 12:00:00 AM

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Post by: bcinvest2016 on November 11, 2016, 12:00:00 AM
Head on over to the home page today.

This used to say 99.8% Positive returns. That's fallen to 99%.
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Post by: smihaila on November 11, 2016, 12:00:00 AM
No wonder - since my estimated returns have now gone from 9-10% down to 4.55% - about 180 notes, 5 defaults, only 3-year notes, mostly C4, C5, D and E.
LC does not seem to due its due diligence in chasing bad payers. I have stopped investing into new notes for the last 6 months or so.
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Post by: .Ryan. on November 11, 2016, 12:00:00 AM
from: bcinvest2016 on November 11, 2016, 11:02:36 AM
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Post by: apc3161 on November 11, 2016, 12:00:00 AM
from: .Ryan. on November 11, 2016, 05:42:18 PM
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Post by: Fred93 on November 11, 2016, 12:00:00 AM
See.. http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=4113.msg38554#msg38554

In this chart you can see how the delinquencies are worse for last four quarters vintages than recent vintages compared at same age.  Delinquencies drive defaults, which drive returns down, as these vintages start to dominate most portfolios.
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Post by: fliphusker on November 11, 2016, 12:00:00 AM
I do not think 101 is enough to diversify and even maybe 200.  Sure defaults are up, (had a perfectly good FOLIO with 13 payments left just go BK yesterday with a 720 unchanged FICO) but should not be up that much that people can actually get negative returns.  I would be curious to see if the number of investors who are below 0 sold out after LP day on FOLIO and took massive losses. 
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Post by: TravelingPennies on November 12, 2016, 12:00:00 AM
from: fliphusker on November 11, 2016, 11:58:11 PM
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Post by: rawraw on November 12, 2016, 12:00:00 AM
I'm glad several of the investors on this forum are leaving. I've long felt people were getting into this with unrealistic expectations and naive beliefs. I expected a recession to weed them out. Seems this will help weed them out without  having to take large losses first.  To me that's a great thing. Hopefully they can invest in something more aligned with their risk tolerances and not just chase yield.
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Post by: dmcnic on November 12, 2016, 12:00:00 AM
from: rawraw on November 12, 2016, 05:18:24 AM
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Post by: TravelingPennies on November 12, 2016, 12:00:00 AM
My portfolio is one of the smallest of the posters here, 290 notes, I know how my ANAR swings wildly during the month due to IGP or later notes.  No doubt some have left LC because of the swings with small accounts.  My FOLIO ANAR just came positive because of holding the same note twice, went BK after 1 payment. 
How many of the 1% did zero backtesting when they jumped in?
I am currently rolling with my IGP notes as almost all have settled into the trend of paying on the same late date monthly.  Am I dumb for this?  Time will tell.  Sure there are plenty who go IGP or later and default, but how many of those do not?  I see it time and time again with FOLIO notes that the borrower went IGP in the 1st month and never again, so far at least.  So you would not buy a 60-month note that went IGP during the first few months and made every payment with a stable FICO 2 years later?
from: smihaila on November 12, 2016, 12:37:44 AM
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Post by: jz451 on November 12, 2016, 12:00:00 AM
I'de more preferrably sell my notes once they go IGP, but I've gone back and forth in my head that it doesn't matter if a note goes IGP or note, because if I plan to sell it now for a 30% discount I'm getting my 70% back. Conversely if I let the 30% of notes that are to go bad, go into late status or default I'm still at 70%. It's all a matter of perspective. It's obviously easier for me to keep track of my notes since I only have like 90 notes, but I'de still prefer to sell my bad notes just to make me feel better inside, and move on from those notes.

from: fliphusker on November 12, 2016, 10:06:40 AM
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Post by: TravelingPennies on November 12, 2016, 12:00:00 AM
from: rawraw on November 12, 2016, 05:18:24 AM