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Are Interest Rate Cuts Not Actually Around the Corner?

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interest ratesIf you were planning on the current interest rate environment loosening up this year, it may be time to reconsider. Inflation is actually going back up, not down. Plus, unemployment is still relatively low and the stock market is near all time highs, with a new record having been set just recently! Even the media which had predicted a minimum of 3 rate cuts this year alone is changing its tune. If you don’t believe us, look:

4/17/24 – The Economist: America’s interest rates are unlikely to fall this year

4/17/24 – CNBC: Wall Street pushes out rate-cut expectations, sees risk they don’t start until March 2025

4/17/24 – Fox Business: Interest rate cut odds dwindle as inflation progress stalls

4/16/24 – Washington Post: The sobering message from the Fed: Interest rate cuts aren’t coming soon

4/15/24 – Axios: The U.S. may be entering a new era of persistently high interest rates

It could even go the other direction. According to CNN, “The Fed might not be done raising interest rates just yet.” Most companies in the industry by now had already adjusted to the current environment (if they’re still around), but it could continue like this for a long or even get more expensive. Prepare accordingly.

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Staying Vigilant in the Funding Business

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There’s a lot of funny business going on these days, so here are some things for you and your merchants to look out for:

The LOC Bait and Switch
A scammer offers the customer an impossibly good deal on a line of credit that is contingent on first entering into some other product. After the customer enters into the first transaction, the LOC offer and the scammer disappear. If your customer is susceptible to falling for something like this, make sure to advise them ahead of time accordingly.

The Mystery Funder
Despite a customer claiming to work exclusively with you as a broker, at some point a third party mysteriously enters the process and offers a separate deal to them to compete with you. Although there could be many reasons for this happening both legitimate or otherwise, including the customer not being completely forthright about exclusivity, you should communicate with your customer beforehand about who or who not to expect a communication from. Also, there are methods you can use to mitigate this by plugging up common attack vectors like an email address or phone # on a submitted application. Allow an attorney to guide you on how to do this most effectively and legally.

The Debt Advisor
Beware the debt advisor who claims they are there to help a merchant reduce the obligations of their loans or advances as many do not understand the contracts they claim to advise on. Because of this, they can potentially push a customer into a much worse situation than they otherwise might’ve been in. A merchant’s best bet is to communicate directly with the source of capital on their own. Oftentimes a contract spells out the proper protocol to follow depending on what the situation is.

pacmanPac-man
They got hot full packs for sale including bank statements, social security #s, and other data ready to send your way! Before engaging in any such transaction, please consult with an attorney about the potential implications of doing something like this. Same goes for you if you were thinking about “selling your declines.”

The Ghost
Brokers often complain about customers falling for obvious scams over the phone, including the classic LOC scam, however, brokers can be just as susceptible to the same tactics. Before working with any lender or funder, you should conduct a full range of due diligence on them. This includes investigating their precise address, who the owner is, what their background is, what their ISO contract says, what their merchant contract says, etc. Too often brokers are drawn in by a commission they believe they stand to make and a smooth talking biz dev rep they talked to on the phone and skip over all the fundamentals. If the funder turns out to be a scammer, then you’ve potentially placed customers with that scammer and put yourself doubly at risk. A commission isn’t worth waiving due diligence. The stakes are too high for this industry.

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Checking in On Stripe Capital

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stripe conference roomEveryone is well aware that Square does revenue-based financing loans, but lesser talked about is that Stripe does too. Stripe has been offering financing to merchants since at least 2019. Valued at more than $65 billion with IPO rumors swirling, Stripe has the potential to become one of the largest online small business lenders in the United States.

Stripe’s loan program is big enough to leave a trail of discussions across the web about their product, including on Reddit where some users have discussed getting loans well into the six figures. In February, one tech founder shared on X that a Stripe Capital loan had been very beneficial for his business.

Originally, Stripe offered a merchant cash advance but has since switched to doing revenue-based loans. In both cases, merchants pay by Stripe withholding a percentage of their card sales in what’s known industry-wide as a split.

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Brokers: Attend This Open Bar in NYC

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broker fair 2024 pre-show party



Broker Fair’s Pre-show party sponsored by Triton Recovery Group takes place on May 19th from 7-9pm at Somewhere Nowhere NYC. The Pre-show requires a separate ticket from the main event taking place the following day at The Metropolitan Pavilion.

You can register below for one or both! OR do it on the main site at brokerfair.org.


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What’s Happening to Trucking?

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truckingWhen deBanked examined the trucking industry in late 2022, the cost of trucks had shot up while margins were being squeezed. Since then major trucking firm Yellow Corp filed for bankruptcy, a bank in Iowa went belly up over bad trucking loans, Fox said that trucking had entered a Great Recession, and Freight Waves labeled trucking a “bloodbath.

In the Freight Waves story, it summed up the issue as “too many trucks and not enough freight to move.” Other trade publications have said the real issue is a shortage of truck drivers.

deBanked pulled some of the granular stats from acclaimed data source Bizminer to see what was happening under the hood.

For General Freight Trucking (over long distances), average revenues were down approximately 20% between 2018 and midway through 2023. For refrigerated trucking services, average revenues were down 24% over the same time period. This drop coincides with a rapid rise in inflation, which means that the dollars generated more recently have even less purchasing power than they did in 2018. For example, $1 million earned in 2018 would equate to $1.24 million earned in 2024. So if one’s revenue didn’t keep pace with that, or worse yet, dropped significantly from where it had been, then they would be worse off. That’s what’s happened to trucking.

Or as the lenders in the commercial finance industry have noticed, trucking has been a complicated business as of late. Between the compressed margins and potential risks, some have opted to suspend working with this segment to err on the side of caution. It’s a big business to step away from given its depth and impact. At last count, for example, 8.4 million people worked in the trucking industry, of which 3.5 million were truck drivers. So even if one doesn’t finance trucks or lend to trucking companies, just about every business there is still depends on trucks to ship and deliver supplies. So what’s happening to trucking affects everyone.

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The Status of the Legal Situation in New York

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A lot has transpired on the legal front in New York State over the last month. If you’re a broker, funder, or lender that does business in New York, you cannot afford to miss this session at Broker Fair on May 20 in NYC. Come and learn about the current status and future outlook of the industry from this panel of knowledgeable attorneys. Your success is dependent on being informed. Take advantage of this opportunity!

broker fair legal panel

Register for Broker Fair here



Additional industry attorneys will also be on site!

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Peter Ribeiro to Speak at Broker Fair 2024

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Brokers, get ready to learn from one of the industry masters. Peter Ribeiro, well known for his ability to build and scale a very successful broker shop, will be speaking at Broker Fair 2024 on May 20 in NYC. If you’ve ever wanted to hear how it’s done from him in person, this is your chance to do it!

Ribeiro also announced just last week that he has become CEO of Capital Gurus.

Peter Ribeiro

Register for Broker Fair in NYC Here

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Don’t Just Say You Can Do SBA Loans, Learn How to Broker Them

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SBA Loan“As in anything else, once you master the learning curve, you’re fine,” says Bob Coleman. “The reason why SBA lending is difficult is you may not know the rules.”

And that’s where Coleman comes in, a former lender turned news source and educator of SBA loan brokers, he offers his own online course called the Certified SBA Loan Broker Training, which is open to commercial loan brokers of various backgrounds that want to master SBA. Without training, brokers unaccustomed to the process can get lost and bogged down if they try to figure it out on the fly.

For instance, “If you drop something off at your lender, the lender is going to come back with 15 things and you may not know exactly what they want,” Coleman says, “and therefore the difficulty arises when you don’t know exactly what the lender wants and you ask the borrower and then it becomes a long drawn out affair.”

It’s precisely this scenario that scares brokers accustomed to light paperwork and perks like 2-hour approvals in the short-term working capital space from even attempting to try their hand at SBA. But even the merchants can be scared off by a longer more arduous process. Coleman also acknowledges that there has been a collective awakening throughout the mainstream commercial finance space that speed is on every business owner’s mind.

But speed can be a matter of experience and just knowing what to do, how to do it, and who to do it with. Besides, in an era of creeping one-stop-loan-shops that can do it all, it will become increasingly difficult for today’s broker to tell a customer that they don’t really know how to do the harder stuff and to always default to a short term loan or MCA when the broker next door is ready to put an SBA loan together if that’s the best course of action. As most brokers are aware, many short-term working capital brokers also offer equipment financing at the very least and vice-versa these days.

money“A successful broker is one that cultivates a relationship with a few lenders,” Coleman says. “A broker is more entrepreneurial [versus an in-house business development officer], has access to a number of different products, and they work with a core level of lenders or funders.”

And that all comes down to training, which Coleman’s course offers for SBA.

“The loan broker course is geared for loan brokers who have a basic knowledge of commercial lending,” Coleman says. “We’re not going to go through and tell them how to analyze an income statement or a balance sheet, but we are going to tell them what SBA lenders are looking for.”

Coleman’s course is designed to take 12 weeks, though with it being online those enrolled can move at their own pace. As a benefit those taking the course get access to Coleman himself and can ask him questions and can join his weekly live show. There’s also the Coleman Roundtable where brokers and lenders dial in together once a week so that lenders can provide updates on what type of deals they’re looking for.

“It’s always a moving target of what the lenders will do,” Coleman says, “As we go through economic cycles, lenders tweak their credit boxes of what they want, and the brokers have to understand the lenders have a tremendous amount of pressure from a lot of stakeholders on how they want their portfolios to look.”

To that end, any broker that maybe tried their hand on an SBA loan in the past and walked away discouraged shouldn’t give up on it entirely.

“SBA is constantly changing,” Coleman says. “If you had a bad experience three or four years ago with a particular lender, forget about it and find out what’s new.”


Bob Coleman will be speaking alongside Sean Murray at Broker Fair New York City on May 20 if you’d like the opportunity to learn more from him and pick his brain in person.

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